Lululemon ($LULU) Slides After Q2 Earnings; Key Levels to Watch

8月30日

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) experienced a sharp pullback early Friday despite posting better-than-expected earnings in Q2. The activewear giant’s outlook and revenue missed analysts' expectations, fueling investor concern.

Fundamental Analysis
Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU) reported Q2 earnings of $3.15 per share, a 17.5% increase year-over-year, surpassing the FactSet consensus estimate of $2.93 per share. Revenue rose 7% to $2.37 billion but fell short of the expected $2.4 billion. Despite the earnings beat, Lululemon’s revenue growth has slowed over the past two quarters, raising concerns about the company's ability to maintain its momentum amid rising competition and shifting consumer behavior.

Q3 and Full-Year Guidance: A Mixed Bag
For Q3, Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU) guided revenue to be in the range of $2.34 billion to $2.365 billion, representing a 6% to 7% growth rate, with earnings projected between $2.68 and $2.73 per share. This was slightly below analysts' expectations of $2.70 per share on $2.4 billion in sales. Lululemon’s full-year sales guidance of $10.38 billion to $10.48 billion also missed the market consensus of $10.6 billion, while the earnings outlook of $13.95 to $14.15 per share was aligned with estimates of $14.01 per share.

Key Concerns: Slowing Growth and Competitive Landscape
Earnings and revenue growth have decelerated, reflecting broader market trends such as weakened consumer spending amid inflationary pressures. Comparable store sales increased by 2%, below the anticipated 5.9%. The company also faces rising competition from other athletic apparel brands and general retail slowdowns, impacting sales growth. Additionally, Lululemon’s missteps, such as the troubled launch of its Breezethrough leggings, have weighed on investor sentiment.

Technical Analysis
Lululemon’s stock has been on a steep decline, dropping nearly 49% year-to-date. However, shares showed signs of breaking this downtrend in premarket trade on Friday, climbing 4.6% to retest key technical levels.

Descending Channel and Moving Averages
Since gapping below the 200-day moving average (MA) in late March, Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU) has traded within a descending channel, marking a persistent multi-month downtrend. In recent weeks, the stock attempted a breakout but faced resistance near the channel’s top trendline and the 50-day MA. Premarket trading indicates a potential retest of these areas, setting up a pivotal moment for the stock.

Key Technical Levels to Watch
1. $272 Resistance: This level coincides with the descending channel’s top trendline and the downward-sloping 50-day MA. A decisive move above this could signal a breakout, prompting further buying interest.

2. $293 Target: The next significant resistance lies around $293, close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the December high to the August low. This level also aligns with key lows in May and July, suggesting potential selling pressure.

3. $335 Region: Should momentum carry Lululemon higher, the $335 level near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement could be the next target. This area could see resistance from notable swing highs and lows in April and June.

4. $371 Long-Term Target: A sustained uptrend could see the stock approach the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $371, where profit-taking might occur. This level aligns with April’s countertrend peak, situated near the descending channel’s upper boundary.

Conclusion
Lululemon faces a challenging road ahead as it seeks to regain investor confidence amid slowing growth and competitive pressures. While the company’s earnings beat expectations, its cautious outlook and revenue shortfall highlight broader industry challenges. On the technical front, key levels could determine the stock’s next move, with a potential breakout above $272 setting the stage for a more extended rally.

Investors should closely monitor these technical markers alongside Lululemon’s ongoing strategic initiatives and broader economic trends to gauge the stock’s recovery prospects.