MCD is going to report earnings on Nov 09, 2020 Before Market Open
The options market overestimated MCD stocks earnings move 75% of the time in the last 12 quarters.
This historical data could give us an edge.
Predicted Average Earnings Move: ±3.2%
Actual Average Earnings Move: 2.3%
One can infer MCD stock price will fall within the predicted range.
Note: A potential catalyst such as recent news could take MCD outside the range. In this event, the catalyst would be considered significant. And identified as an outlier.
Closed: 216.56
Predicted ±$6.92 ( ±3.2% )
upside = $223.49
downside = $209.63
Actual ±$4.980 ( ± 2.3% )
upside = $221.54
downside = $211.58
Thanks for reviewing my idea and constructive criticism is welcome.
The options market overestimated MCD stocks earnings move 75% of the time in the last 12 quarters.
This historical data could give us an edge.
Predicted Average Earnings Move: ±3.2%
Actual Average Earnings Move: 2.3%
One can infer MCD stock price will fall within the predicted range.
Note: A potential catalyst such as recent news could take MCD outside the range. In this event, the catalyst would be considered significant. And identified as an outlier.
Closed: 216.56
Predicted ±$6.92 ( ±3.2% )
upside = $223.49
downside = $209.63
Actual ±$4.980 ( ± 2.3% )
upside = $221.54
downside = $211.58
Thanks for reviewing my idea and constructive criticism is welcome.