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comment: Market closed near the high of the week and we made a textbook double bottom below 56. Sometimes it’s not more complicated than that to take a trade.
current market cycle: trading range on monthly tf and bear trend on the daily
key levels: 58 - 64
bull case: 63 is my first bull target, followed by 64 and above 64.38 we likely test up to the bear trend line around 67. Best for bulls would be to keep the gap 59.8 - 60.3 open.
Invalidation is below 58.
bear case: If we drop below 58 again, it’s a clear descending triangle and we could do 56 or lower, again. Right now bears don’t have much since last week was bullish and closed at the highs. Best bears could get is a trading range 55 - 65, so they better keep making lower highs or they have to try again around 67 or higher.
Invalidation is above 64.4
short term: Bullish for 63 or higher. No interest in selling down here.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-11: 3 legs down on the weekly chart and market has printed a credible bottom around 55. I think we can test back to 65 over the next weeks.
comment: Market closed near the high of the week and we made a textbook double bottom below 56. Sometimes it’s not more complicated than that to take a trade.
current market cycle: trading range on monthly tf and bear trend on the daily
key levels: 58 - 64
bull case: 63 is my first bull target, followed by 64 and above 64.38 we likely test up to the bear trend line around 67. Best for bulls would be to keep the gap 59.8 - 60.3 open.
Invalidation is below 58.
bear case: If we drop below 58 again, it’s a clear descending triangle and we could do 56 or lower, again. Right now bears don’t have much since last week was bullish and closed at the highs. Best bears could get is a trading range 55 - 65, so they better keep making lower highs or they have to try again around 67 or higher.
Invalidation is above 64.4
short term: Bullish for 63 or higher. No interest in selling down here.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-11: 3 legs down on the weekly chart and market has printed a credible bottom around 55. I think we can test back to 65 over the next weeks.
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