January 3 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,752.75 rally-high, $3,714.50 weak low, $3,731.00 HVNode, $3,756.75 price extension, $3,691.00 break-point.
Technical:
In light of the holiday, I’m keeping it short.
From a shaky recovery, stimulus, elections, trade deals, and the like, it helps to boil it down to what actually matters: price and value. So, with that, on tapering holiday volumes, Thursday’s initiative buying, above the $3,731.00 high-volume node (HVNode), diverged prices from value. As a result, the following frameworks apply.
In the best case, the S&P 500 remains above its $3,731.00 HVNode. Expectations thereafter include continued balance or a response followed by initiative buying to take out the price extension at $3,756.75.
In the worst case, the S&P 500 initiates below its $3,731.00 HVNode. Expectations thereafter include a test of the weak, minimal excess low at $3,714.50, and subsequent follow-through as low as the $3,691.00 break-point.
Two go, no-go levels exist; trade that finds increased involvement above $3,752.75 and below $3,714.50 would suggest a change in conviction. Anything in-between favors responsive trade.
Key Events:
Monday: Markit Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending MoM.
Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders MoM, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, FOMC Minutes.
Thursday: Balance of Trade and Jobless Claims, as well as ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity, Employment, New Orders, PMI, and Prices.
Friday: Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM and YoY, Average Weekly Hours, Non Farm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Wholesale Inventories MoM, Consumer Credit Change.
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 46.1% Bullish, 27.1% Neutral, 26.8% Bearish as of 12/30/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Neutral) 4,349,151,400 as of 12/31/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 45.7% as of 12/31/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,752.75 rally-high, $3,714.50 weak low, $3,731.00 HVNode, $3,756.75 price extension, $3,691.00 break-point.
Technical:
In light of the holiday, I’m keeping it short.
From a shaky recovery, stimulus, elections, trade deals, and the like, it helps to boil it down to what actually matters: price and value. So, with that, on tapering holiday volumes, Thursday’s initiative buying, above the $3,731.00 high-volume node (HVNode), diverged prices from value. As a result, the following frameworks apply.
In the best case, the S&P 500 remains above its $3,731.00 HVNode. Expectations thereafter include continued balance or a response followed by initiative buying to take out the price extension at $3,756.75.
In the worst case, the S&P 500 initiates below its $3,731.00 HVNode. Expectations thereafter include a test of the weak, minimal excess low at $3,714.50, and subsequent follow-through as low as the $3,691.00 break-point.
Two go, no-go levels exist; trade that finds increased involvement above $3,752.75 and below $3,714.50 would suggest a change in conviction. Anything in-between favors responsive trade.
Key Events:
Monday: Markit Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending MoM.
Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders MoM, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, FOMC Minutes.
Thursday: Balance of Trade and Jobless Claims, as well as ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity, Employment, New Orders, PMI, and Prices.
Friday: Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM and YoY, Average Weekly Hours, Non Farm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Wholesale Inventories MoM, Consumer Credit Change.
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 46.1% Bullish, 27.1% Neutral, 26.8% Bearish as of 12/30/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Neutral) 4,349,151,400 as of 12/31/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 45.7% as of 12/31/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
