2024-07-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: What a bull day… Just straight up buying all the way up. Market did not touch the 15m ema once since 30mins before us open. Happy for everyone who were long since below 19970 and held. Still a lower high but given the strength of today, some follow through is expected.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged
key levels: 19700 - 20100
bull case: Bulls want a measured move up from the strong buying today, which could bring this to 20600. Sounds insane but that’s what the chart is showing. First target for the bulls is till to make this a higher high again and for that they need to trade above 20273. If they do that, I don’t think this will be stopped until a much higher ath.
Invalidation is below 20100.
bear case: Not having much for the bears here. They just vanished today since US open. They need to do everything they can to keep this a lower high below 20273 or bulls will make a new ath. IF bears can reverse this, 20000 is the magnet we are oscillating around. I don’t have much fantasy how this market could do another meltup to be honest but price is truth and the chart is screaming “*explicit* your puts” and wants higher.
Invalidation is above 20273.
short term: Max bullish above 20273 for new ath but inner bear in me hopes this reverses again. I don’t have any open positions on this.
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: just buy anywhere around the us open and hold. 15m ema was not touched once.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: What a bull day… Just straight up buying all the way up. Market did not touch the 15m ema once since 30mins before us open. Happy for everyone who were long since below 19970 and held. Still a lower high but given the strength of today, some follow through is expected.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged
key levels: 19700 - 20100
bull case: Bulls want a measured move up from the strong buying today, which could bring this to 20600. Sounds insane but that’s what the chart is showing. First target for the bulls is till to make this a higher high again and for that they need to trade above 20273. If they do that, I don’t think this will be stopped until a much higher ath.
Invalidation is below 20100.
bear case: Not having much for the bears here. They just vanished today since US open. They need to do everything they can to keep this a lower high below 20273 or bulls will make a new ath. IF bears can reverse this, 20000 is the magnet we are oscillating around. I don’t have much fantasy how this market could do another meltup to be honest but price is truth and the chart is screaming “*explicit* your puts” and wants higher.
Invalidation is above 20273.
short term: Max bullish above 20273 for new ath but inner bear in me hopes this reverses again. I don’t have any open positions on this.
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: just buy anywhere around the us open and hold. 15m ema was not touched once.
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