Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not even the US President joining a war can start the selling. Truly a special time. Above 22130 there is no reason this can’t test 22300 or higher. Market clearly does not care about the event and the pain trade seems up. Can’t hold bearish thoughts after today’s reversals. Very small chance that if we stay below 22130, bears come around and we test down to 21800 or lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21500 - 22300
bull case: Bulls had the following legs up today: 380, 260, 350 points from swing lows to highs. On such a day, this is as bullish as it gets. They now need to print a higher high and then there is no more obvious reason why we can’t test back up to 22300 or higher.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears vanished after the double bottom in the US session and market closed at the high. Which is worst case for bears. Above 21130 they have to cover and I expect an acceleration upwards. If they somehow come around strongly and we go below 21950, then chances are decent that we can test down to 21800 again. Bears need to sell it early tomorrow or the bear trend line is gone and we could go much higher.
Invalidation is above 22130.
short term: Neutral. Only interested in shorts if we stay below 22130. I still think markets are grossly miss-priced and complacent but for now that thesis is wrong.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-22: Daily close below 21500 is my validation for the new bear trend which has the first bigger target at 21000 but I think we will printed below 20000 again this year. Structure is obviously not yet bearish, so don’t be early if you want confirmation and can’t/won’t scale in to shorts higher. Getting into longer term shorts above 21500 seems like the banger trade right now.
trade of the day: Buying literally every dip was good.
comment: Not even the US President joining a war can start the selling. Truly a special time. Above 22130 there is no reason this can’t test 22300 or higher. Market clearly does not care about the event and the pain trade seems up. Can’t hold bearish thoughts after today’s reversals. Very small chance that if we stay below 22130, bears come around and we test down to 21800 or lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21500 - 22300
bull case: Bulls had the following legs up today: 380, 260, 350 points from swing lows to highs. On such a day, this is as bullish as it gets. They now need to print a higher high and then there is no more obvious reason why we can’t test back up to 22300 or higher.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears vanished after the double bottom in the US session and market closed at the high. Which is worst case for bears. Above 21130 they have to cover and I expect an acceleration upwards. If they somehow come around strongly and we go below 21950, then chances are decent that we can test down to 21800 again. Bears need to sell it early tomorrow or the bear trend line is gone and we could go much higher.
Invalidation is above 22130.
short term: Neutral. Only interested in shorts if we stay below 22130. I still think markets are grossly miss-priced and complacent but for now that thesis is wrong.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-22: Daily close below 21500 is my validation for the new bear trend which has the first bigger target at 21000 but I think we will printed below 20000 again this year. Structure is obviously not yet bearish, so don’t be early if you want confirmation and can’t/won’t scale in to shorts higher. Getting into longer term shorts above 21500 seems like the banger trade right now.
trade of the day: Buying literally every dip was good.
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