MSFT at a Key Spot–Rejection or Rebound? Here’s the Trade Setup

GEX-Based Option Outlook:
The GEX chart reveals strong support around 487.5, with the highest positive NetGEX zone at 491.5. This is the “Gamma Wall” — market makers likely defending this level. Below that, heavy PUT support is stacked around 485, signaling hedging flow that could act as a floor. IVR is sitting at 21.5, and the PUT% is 3.2%, suggesting relatively cautious sentiment.
→ Call buyers can consider 495C or 500C for a bounce if MSFT holds this zone — ideally for a short-dated scalp if 492.5 reclaims and confirms.

Price Action (1H) Intraday Analysis:

MSFT sold off into a key SMC demand zone, now stabilizing inside the green OB box just above 487.5. We saw a CHoCH (Change of Character) and Break of Structure confirming weakness, but the last candles suggest deceleration in selling.
There’s also a previous supply zone at 497–500 which is likely to reject price on the first retest. A lower high could print there if bulls step in early.

Trade Ideas:
Scenario 1 – Long (Reclaim and Bounce):
* Entry: Above 492.5
* Target: 497 → 500
* Stop: Below 487.5
* Reason: Reclaim of key GEX resistance + bounce from demand zone + volume tapering on dip
Scenario 2 – Short (Rejection):
* Entry: Near 497–500 if tapped fast
* Target: 487.5 → 485
* Stop: Above 501
* Reason: GEX call wall + previous SMC BOS zone + weak structure on pop

Thoughts:
MSFT looks weak on momentum, but it’s sitting on a gamma and SMC confluence zone. If bulls are going to defend this, they need to do it early tomorrow. Watch volume — low-volume grind higher is ideal for a long scalp. Otherwise, fade any pop near 500.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research and manage your risk.