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NANO - Looks Can be Deceiving

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Man, a lot of people are really frustrated with the price action of NANO. And who can blame them? I did make a call recently that NANO could test some lower levels, which it has already done. Link to that idea is at bottom. However, even with lagging alts, I'd urge everyone to pay attention to the USD pairings. This is why I say, "looks can be deceiving." Take a peak at the NANOUSD chart:

It's on the verge of completing a massive Adam and Eve bottom, and is consolidating in an ascending triangle pattern against major long term support turned resistance. This resistance currently lies in the $2.15-2.20 area. As soon as that clears, there's not much holding NANO back until 3.85ish. Volume is continuing to decline as well, which is what you'd want to see before an ascending triangle breaks out. Of course, if it breaks down below the support, that would invalidate the bullish scenario. An ascending triangle, by the way, works like this, in terms of market psychology: Buying interest has decreased, because price has stagnated. Everyone is awaiting a direction. Meanwhile, demand has started to outpace supply, so even though interest is low, price continues to rise. Eventually, once price passes a certain psychological barrier, everyone and their mothers jump in to buy, because they realize they've all fallen asleep on the asset, and the higher high confirms that price is ready to move up.

Anyway, if we look at the NANOBTC chart, we're in a bit of a falling wedge (also with decreasing volume). Additionally, NANO hasn't even been able to break below the 1900 area, which shows that there is still SOME demand. It's possible that NANO will need to briefly capitulate to some deeper levels against Bitcoin (as it did in August 2018). We'll see. The ultimate oscillator (red) and RSI (pink) both look like they've touched bottom, which could also indicate that NANO has already seen the lowest point against Bitcoin, for now. When the ultimate oscillator makes a double bottom (on the daily or weekly timeframe) it's usually a very good buy signal. Bitcoin made a double bottom on its weekly ultimate oscillator when it was in the 3K range, and that's one of the many things that led me to believe there was a strong chance the market had hit bottom.

NANO may not ever achieve its former glory, in terms of how high its Bitcoin ratio can go, but that doesn't mean that it can't make some seriously explosive moves in a short amount of time. Particularly if that $2.20 resistance breaks. We've been consolidating in this area for a VERY long time.

If we do break out of this wedge and have an explosive move up, I'd pay more attention to the USD chart, but on the Bitcoin pairing we'd need to first get above the 2100 support turned resistance with some volume.

This is not financial advice. This is an update on a coin I've been following for a long time. This is for speculative and educational purposes only.

-Victor Cobra

註釋

Back to the support turned resistance after the wedge broke. We’ll see if FOMO kicks in and sends it back up, or if it has to retest the broken wedge support. A lot of alts have been breaking out of their wedges, only to head back to test them as support.

註釋

Looks like that's exactly what just happened. Perhaps it can build back up from here if Bitcoin continues consolidating, even after that rejection. Altcoins still haven't quite been unleashed yet. There is also a chance for a bigger drop, but they're still building pressure on their channel top.

註釋

Clearly, this failed to play out, as investors really have appeared to lose confidence in NANO long term. It really makes me wonder, though why it's consistently been such a bad performer, considering it has pretty unique (and powerful) technology. Anyway, my original bearish idea played out. We've indeed started to test some nasty lows.

註釋

If that pink trendline can't hold (high 1500 area), that would be a VERY bad sign for NANO.