Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 17 July 2024
I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my pre day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None for today - tomorrow is Netflix earnings
Directional bias - Starting to look Bearish?!
During analysis noted the following:
M - Still looking bullish, but long wick beginning to form. Wick is 4'330 pips at time of writing, body of the M candle is 5'900 pips
W - On the W TF you can see weakness in the candles. Last week's candle closed with a very long wick red doji candle. This week's candle is still forming but the weakness is evident, with price struggling to stay above the last 2 week's highest closing points - strong resistance forming on the W TF. The way that this week's candle will close will be very telling because price could just be stalling and then continue to move up (especially during earnings season), or this could be the beginning of a reversal.
D - The large red candle on the 11 July can be seen as a retracement. Price moved down to the W - 0.50 fib level and then moved up again. However, now one can see that a DT may be taking shape on the D TF. A potential neckline is visible and once price breaks below that point on the D TF (i.e. a D candle closes below the neckline), we may be in for a large move down because the profit target of the DT is +- 4'700 pips away. Yesterday's D candle closed as a hanging man candle.
Hanging man candle is a bearish reversal candle and indicates:
- sellers are beginning to outnumber the buyers
- the long bottom wick shows that sellers are pushing lower but the buyers could only push up near the candle open, meaning that there are not enough buyers left to provide the necessary momentum to keep price rising.
Today, in the early morning hours, we see more bears entering the market and pushing price down (at time of writing)
4H -
Trend line - a down trend is forming between B. and C. - two touches to a trend line forms the trend line. Three touches to a trend line, confirms the trend. So if you draw trend lines to wicks a trend has formed. If you draw trend lines to candle bodies (i.e. disregard the wicks and draw a trend line touching the thick part of the candle as per the yellow trend line) you will have three touches to the trend line. So I interpret this to mean that a strong temporary down trend is formed and confirmed.
Sell fibs - one can also see that the sell fibs are becoming stronger and the bulls are unable to break these zones, even after many attempts.
The 4H 0.618 sell fib kept price down on 3 attempts
The 4H 0.50 sell fib kept price down on FIVE attempts. Hence why bulls are losing momentum, they keep pushing up but bears are successfully keeping bulls down at lower and lower price levels.
S&R - yesterday price has been unable to break above and away the pivot point and today (at time of writing) the pivot point has already acted as a strong resistance (as indicated by the 2 x dice icons)
Buy fibs - buy fibs are unable to give price the momentum to move up and we can see that the D - 0.382 buy fib + D - 0.50 buy fib has been breached. This is telling because the D fib levels are strong (marked in blue).
So after this analysis, it seems my directional bias as a BUY is under threat.
I know that if I don't have my directional bias correct, then big losses are guaranteed.
I may wait today to see how the D candle closes in relation to the D market pattern that is forming (DT) and see if bears are strong enough to break the neckline down. Up until then we still have a W 0.382 buy fib level + D EMA that needs to be breached by bears and perhaps these levels are strong enough to call in more bulls.
As Trading View always says, there are three things you can do as a trader....buy, sell or wait. And I think today I might wait.
Have a great trading day!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my pre day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 6am GMT (1am EST)
Economic news - None
News - None for today - tomorrow is Netflix earnings
Directional bias - Starting to look Bearish?!
During analysis noted the following:
M - Still looking bullish, but long wick beginning to form. Wick is 4'330 pips at time of writing, body of the M candle is 5'900 pips
W - On the W TF you can see weakness in the candles. Last week's candle closed with a very long wick red doji candle. This week's candle is still forming but the weakness is evident, with price struggling to stay above the last 2 week's highest closing points - strong resistance forming on the W TF. The way that this week's candle will close will be very telling because price could just be stalling and then continue to move up (especially during earnings season), or this could be the beginning of a reversal.
D - The large red candle on the 11 July can be seen as a retracement. Price moved down to the W - 0.50 fib level and then moved up again. However, now one can see that a DT may be taking shape on the D TF. A potential neckline is visible and once price breaks below that point on the D TF (i.e. a D candle closes below the neckline), we may be in for a large move down because the profit target of the DT is +- 4'700 pips away. Yesterday's D candle closed as a hanging man candle.
Hanging man candle is a bearish reversal candle and indicates:
- sellers are beginning to outnumber the buyers
- the long bottom wick shows that sellers are pushing lower but the buyers could only push up near the candle open, meaning that there are not enough buyers left to provide the necessary momentum to keep price rising.
Today, in the early morning hours, we see more bears entering the market and pushing price down (at time of writing)
4H -
Trend line - a down trend is forming between B. and C. - two touches to a trend line forms the trend line. Three touches to a trend line, confirms the trend. So if you draw trend lines to wicks a trend has formed. If you draw trend lines to candle bodies (i.e. disregard the wicks and draw a trend line touching the thick part of the candle as per the yellow trend line) you will have three touches to the trend line. So I interpret this to mean that a strong temporary down trend is formed and confirmed.
Sell fibs - one can also see that the sell fibs are becoming stronger and the bulls are unable to break these zones, even after many attempts.
The 4H 0.618 sell fib kept price down on 3 attempts
The 4H 0.50 sell fib kept price down on FIVE attempts. Hence why bulls are losing momentum, they keep pushing up but bears are successfully keeping bulls down at lower and lower price levels.
S&R - yesterday price has been unable to break above and away the pivot point and today (at time of writing) the pivot point has already acted as a strong resistance (as indicated by the 2 x dice icons)
Buy fibs - buy fibs are unable to give price the momentum to move up and we can see that the D - 0.382 buy fib + D - 0.50 buy fib has been breached. This is telling because the D fib levels are strong (marked in blue).
So after this analysis, it seems my directional bias as a BUY is under threat.
I know that if I don't have my directional bias correct, then big losses are guaranteed.
I may wait today to see how the D candle closes in relation to the D market pattern that is forming (DT) and see if bears are strong enough to break the neckline down. Up until then we still have a W 0.382 buy fib level + D EMA that needs to be breached by bears and perhaps these levels are strong enough to call in more bulls.
As Trading View always says, there are three things you can do as a trader....buy, sell or wait. And I think today I might wait.
Have a great trading day!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
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