This is posted for historic reference in case the market cracks here and goes down as expected.
All three major indices look bearish to me.
S&P500
Nasdaq
DJIA
DXY
All three major indices look bearish to me.
S&P500
- Double top
- Daily price (Aug 21st, 2018) upside wick is outside upper bollinger band.
Nasdaq
- NQ has been hugging channel support line hard and is about ready to slide out from exhaustion (see first chart below)
- NQ 4H shows extreme exhuberance with candle body outside upper bollinger band (see second chart below)
- Apple being a core component is hitting its channel resistance line as well (see third chart below)
- Apple has hit trillion dollar company status, landmark event capping the top
DJIA
- Daily price upside wick is outside bollinger band for two days in a row
- Price is tapping resistance of channel
DXY
- Dollar squeezed out of ascending wedge
- Price is falling back in right onto support, which implies continued US dollar strength coinciding amidst weak indices
評論:
The idea is still in play, I have not seen any price behaviour that suggests otherwise. I have a small update and observation to make using the chart below.
評論:
交易進行:
So I lost a thousand on this trade on Friday, but am not coinviced yet that I am wrong.
My justification at this moment relies primarily for NQ, the days of August 18 and 23 you had two large upper wick inverted hammers end on or near support. The continued moves up after both of those days to me spells that the invisible hand managing this index is stepping in and juicing the market (like shock paddles) right about as it wants to turn over.
In other words, the market wants to go lower but someone is stepping in and absorbing hard the selling pressure. To me this says that they are not yet ready to drop the market, but they can easily do it by lifting their hand.
Take a look at those two dates.
With that said, I will be looking to re-enter short this week at a better price.
My justification at this moment relies primarily for NQ, the days of August 18 and 23 you had two large upper wick inverted hammers end on or near support. The continued moves up after both of those days to me spells that the invisible hand managing this index is stepping in and juicing the market (like shock paddles) right about as it wants to turn over.
In other words, the market wants to go lower but someone is stepping in and absorbing hard the selling pressure. To me this says that they are not yet ready to drop the market, but they can easily do it by lifting their hand.
Take a look at those two dates.
With that said, I will be looking to re-enter short this week at a better price.
評論:
So I know I was a bit premature (re: wrong) but I feel that this last leg up is entirely end stage blow off top exhuberance so we should expect to see this type of behaviour.
Here is my update for entering short, on red arrow will begin to NQ short.
Here is my update for entering short, on red arrow will begin to NQ short.
交易進行:
I have 4 short NQ at 7684, and this is what I am looking at.
評論:
Wow did not expect that, but that is a nice 4HR engulfing.
評論:
Just a thought on how to play this morning.
評論:
Observed this today. Contractions getting slower, diminishing highs reached.
Bullish momentum drying up or bears are becoming more aggressive / emboldened.
Bullish momentum drying up or bears are becoming more aggressive / emboldened.
