Natural Gass Compass
已更新
In this one I use my preferred charting tool that uses data points from the past: Curved Trendlines. While there are other variations of such lines that I might use depending on the context, in this case the pattern low-high-high or high-low-low is widely detected as relevant and used as such for mapping out potential forces and support/resistance zones.
As you can see there is a relevant potential support zone validated by both the white curve and the blue curve which overlap further in time. There will be no surprises if the these levels keep holding the price for a while.
The yellow one is the weakest one in my opinion, because of the peculiar case on natural gas that doesn't provide much options for such support/resistance lines, because of the X high that was created in a strong but weird position relative to past highs and lows. Meaning that if the yellow is broken on the up, it might not even matter in the future because a different setup might unfold, creating a totally different type of line in any type of pattern regarding previous highs and lows.
What I like about these lines is that the relevant ones tend to provide clear cut cases of rebounds (example in the white dot), retests after break (green dot), or even pure power breaks with no comebacks (yellow dot).
The scenarios I find important in this picture are the following:
- the obvious potential rebound from the white and blue
- the less obvious but very important break on the downside of the white and blue which has a higher chance of a retest because of the significance of these lines (these retests tend to happen for these long lasting lines with many data points)
- supposing the yellow line does hold, or if another similar resistance line appears after another high lower than X, and supposing the white is finally penetrated, we enter the C zone which I believe has a decent probability for action inside it.
I find the B zone less likely to be relevant as it implies the breaking of the white which should lead to a more bearish or consolidation mood rather that another power bullish move.
I decided to post this snapshot here with these lines because as you can see the price has provided decent relevant lines in the recent past with the greens and blue, while in the current present case, these lines are almost non existent because of the position of the X high relative to the previous highs and lows.
My guess is that a careful analysis of the reaction of the market to these lines could give us clues of what the sentiment in the market is, shifting from the bullish mood to a more cautious neutral or indecision mood with the break of the white and blue.
As you can see there is a relevant potential support zone validated by both the white curve and the blue curve which overlap further in time. There will be no surprises if the these levels keep holding the price for a while.
The yellow one is the weakest one in my opinion, because of the peculiar case on natural gas that doesn't provide much options for such support/resistance lines, because of the X high that was created in a strong but weird position relative to past highs and lows. Meaning that if the yellow is broken on the up, it might not even matter in the future because a different setup might unfold, creating a totally different type of line in any type of pattern regarding previous highs and lows.
What I like about these lines is that the relevant ones tend to provide clear cut cases of rebounds (example in the white dot), retests after break (green dot), or even pure power breaks with no comebacks (yellow dot).
The scenarios I find important in this picture are the following:
- the obvious potential rebound from the white and blue
- the less obvious but very important break on the downside of the white and blue which has a higher chance of a retest because of the significance of these lines (these retests tend to happen for these long lasting lines with many data points)
- supposing the yellow line does hold, or if another similar resistance line appears after another high lower than X, and supposing the white is finally penetrated, we enter the C zone which I believe has a decent probability for action inside it.
I find the B zone less likely to be relevant as it implies the breaking of the white which should lead to a more bearish or consolidation mood rather that another power bullish move.
I decided to post this snapshot here with these lines because as you can see the price has provided decent relevant lines in the recent past with the greens and blue, while in the current present case, these lines are almost non existent because of the position of the X high relative to the previous highs and lows.
My guess is that a careful analysis of the reaction of the market to these lines could give us clues of what the sentiment in the market is, shifting from the bullish mood to a more cautious neutral or indecision mood with the break of the white and blue.
註釋
Break and retest with a bounce.註釋
Back at the yellow. We could see a rebound on the up, even if it is just a correction of the bearish wave that started on the top.註釋
A decent rebound from the yellow and in an interesting position right now. Probably advised to check for potential shift in mood in case there will be another visit of the yellow.註釋
Currently stagnating right at the new developed green curve with the recent low pivot point at the yellow. This will most likely not hold and approaching the blue and white especially where they intersect the yellow could be a very interesting zone.註釋
The market didn't break the green. It eventually bounced from it.註釋
Compass alert for nat gas as it is near the green curve again. Last rebound from it was a good one. It might have enough gas in the tank for another bull wave before finally breaking it on the downside. Last rebound from it was a good one, but the angle in this position is already different.註釋
After the break of the green, rebound from the blue and white combo. The initial idea discarded the B zone scenario, but sooner or late this zone will be visited.註釋
This project is probably mostly to show the potential relevance of such curves. Break and retest of the blue and white combo. Next question is if the yellow one is still valid as potential support/resistance element.
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