Long term idea - Nasdaq on bubble territory (1-2 Years)

2020年7月14日

The Work from home narrative has pushed tech stocks in All time highs. Now the Nasdaq100/SP500 ratio is higher than the 2000 stock bubble.
Having this in mind Shorting the NDX, Buying the SPX has a great risk reward ratio.
TA: Monthly RSI is in extreme overbought levels
Fundamentals: If a vaccine is announced the SP500 laggards (airlines, travel, retail) will skyrocket, thus outperforming Tech stocks.
If a second lockdown is implemented the Growth aspect of Nasdaq will be significantly lower, of course SPX will fall as well, but because
A) laggards are already in low levels
B) Governments have already promised support.
SPX will outperform NDX.

Game plan: Short NDX,Buy SPX with 30% of total Portfolio. SL @ 4 , TP @ 2.1
If SL is breached i will open a new position @ 4 with 50% of total portfolio.

Disclaimer: All of the above is my opinion about the markets. DO NOT OPEN any position without doing your own Due Diligence.
I am Short NDX, Long SPX

2020年7月21日

註釋

I noticed that NASDAQ is heavily influenced by TSLA, this is why i prefer to trade the ratio, because if TSLA is included in SPX then SPX will perform as NDX. If TSLA is not included in SPX then it will tank pushing NDX down.