天然氣期貨已更新 Natural Gas Seasonal Wait 8/12/2020
This is natural gas at the daily view.
When it comes to natural gas, you have to think big picture first. Natural gas moves much slower and in bursts. During the summer, every trader and the mother was bearish on natural gas. What they didn't see was the inverse head and shoulders forming (marked with yellow curved lines). Natural gas' sentiment is still very, very bearish. The bearish traders are looking at NG's micro movements and for any signs of bearishness. That's more of a sign of desperation.
In market psychology, whenever something is excessively bearish or bullish, then the opposite usually happens. Why? Because the traders tend to take a bias in positions that they are ALREADY in and tend to double down in their bias.
Natural gas is currently in a bull flag right now. There is a minor support at $2.05 where the bottom of the flag will intersect around August 14th. The bigger support would be (price in time) around 1.975 by August 24th. That's when the bottom of the bull flag meets the channel line (bigger support). In the case of NG, time is more important than price.
NG is very seasonal. It's experiencing its summer spike, but then consolidates or drags down in September in preparation for the fall/winter ramp up. Here is the bottom line with NG. Bears have less than two weeks to take this down below 1.90 and cancel out the bull flag. The longer that it stays consolidated in that bull flag, the more buyers that NG will gather for the next leg up and just in time for the rest of the summer spike. Right now, it's at a vulnerable position until it reaches a support to bounce off from. If bears fail to take this down below $1.90, then the measured move for the next leg up may be around $2.48.
I'd rather wait to see how it reacts to the supports below myself before committing.
When it comes to natural gas, you have to think big picture first. Natural gas moves much slower and in bursts. During the summer, every trader and the mother was bearish on natural gas. What they didn't see was the inverse head and shoulders forming (marked with yellow curved lines). Natural gas' sentiment is still very, very bearish. The bearish traders are looking at NG's micro movements and for any signs of bearishness. That's more of a sign of desperation.
In market psychology, whenever something is excessively bearish or bullish, then the opposite usually happens. Why? Because the traders tend to take a bias in positions that they are ALREADY in and tend to double down in their bias.
Natural gas is currently in a bull flag right now. There is a minor support at $2.05 where the bottom of the flag will intersect around August 14th. The bigger support would be (price in time) around 1.975 by August 24th. That's when the bottom of the bull flag meets the channel line (bigger support). In the case of NG, time is more important than price.
NG is very seasonal. It's experiencing its summer spike, but then consolidates or drags down in September in preparation for the fall/winter ramp up. Here is the bottom line with NG. Bears have less than two weeks to take this down below 1.90 and cancel out the bull flag. The longer that it stays consolidated in that bull flag, the more buyers that NG will gather for the next leg up and just in time for the rest of the summer spike. Right now, it's at a vulnerable position until it reaches a support to bounce off from. If bears fail to take this down below $1.90, then the measured move for the next leg up may be around $2.48.
I'd rather wait to see how it reacts to the supports below myself before committing.
註釋
Why did I choose 1.97ish as a major support area? It's not only a channel line. It's also near the 200 day MA. It's usually the make or break line.
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。