Nat Gas Report, Contract Rollove Day: 2/25/25

2月25日

The week has traded a bit stronger than expected, but the future contract rolls over tomorrow. And today there was a great deal of settlement positioning before rollover. As seen in the jump in volume at the expiration window timeframe. It is still expected that tomorrow there will be a great deal of selling into the strength of the pricing. The range of the 20-Day Bollinger Band for the March contract is more than $1.50. Last year it was closer to 30 cents. There were a great deal of contracts to settle with futures. Tomorrow we see a reversion to the mean.
I closed my putts last night, at the 3930 level. I did not expect the strength that we saw today begin last night, but I had my target in sight and took action. I am now waiting for the futures to rollover, some profit to be taken and then to enter my longs for the month. I was looking at the 3650 level on the upcoming April contract, but with the Models starting to see the cold coming, like discussed, I believe my new entry point will be 3800 on the April contract. Good luck and good fortunes.
Keep it burning!

2月26日

註釋

There are a number of factors that indicate what kind of sell off we will see. Can't predict the future. But I do think we will see some kind of drop before we head back up again. I am going to wait until the future contract rolls off tomorrow and see how the market reacts to the EIA report and the synoptic weather models come in Thursday night. I did pick up four OTM April ($3.85) putts today, because of my thinking that there will be an exit of contracts before settlement tomorrow. I would like to exit them before picking up my long calls for the month. April is not a month to run a strangle position.