NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The Index seem to take a breather after scaling back the Oct peak. However, the crucial 19870 continues to resist for the past couple of weeks. The weekly candle still shows bullish nature of the move. Comparing the past this appears to be a new intermediary trend emerging. For now, we can safely assume that the base has shifted higher to 19430

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

• The index moved in a range of 205 points viz. between 19670 and 19875
  
• The oscillators of different time frames are turning positive
  
• Monthly candle closing and Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  

 
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week

• Index appear to be at stage one of a new Intermediary trend. However, there are multiple hurdles ahead of the path
  
• Re-attempt of 20K- What appeared as a herculean task a few weeks back, seems possible with the past three successive weekly gains. However, the past week is an inside candle with a twzeer top at 19875.
  

Additional interesting observations

• Bulls making a tuff fight in holding the Index above 19700
  
• Index may find supports at 19720, 19610, 19520 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels 19870, 19980 & 20050
  
• Though the earlier gaps got covered during the down move, and new gaps have been created around the same levels.
  
• 18818-18908 (28th Jun 23) Covered
  
• 18972-19079 (29th July 23) Covered ** Created again as 18990-19129
  
• 19189-19246 (3rd July 23) Covered ** Created again as 19144-19247
  
• 19443-19651 (15th Nov 23) At Risk
  

Final Note

• The Index has stayed well above the long-term trend line and the 200 DMA at 18761 and stays above 55 DMA at 19605
  
• Having achieved the intermediary target, the Inde seem to consolidate for wait for the net move
  
• The Index has breached the descending channel at 19570 and moved swiftly after this breach. The potential target for this would be about 900 points which is around 20470. It would be negated if the Inde falls back below 19430 and re-entres the channel
  
• Even if there is a reactive decline after 4 weekly gains, a few occasions in the past shows clear signs of a new trend emerging after such sharp gains (Refer june 22 & Mar 23)
  
• The Index has to clear the hurdle at 19870 quickly else there could be fresh shorts emerging with stop above 19900. Next 2-3 sessions would throw better picture
  
• The Index is likely to consolidate between 19500 and 20K
  
• We need to see daily close above 19870 to see further gains
  
• Truncated week, Monthly candle close and new Dec series beginning are expected to keep the market volatile
  
• This time the fault line on either side is getting narrower at 19600 at the lower end and 19870 at the top end
  

#Stay Safe


Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.