NIFTY "BULL Trap" OR "BEAR Trap"

2020年4月29日

NIFTY Since the time we hit an all time yearly low on nifty, it is gaining in a "RISING WEDGE" manner whose breakout wont be coming soon.
Looking at Fibonacci retracement it can be drawn that we are heading towards 10,000 mark (approximately) which is 0.5% retracement which also has highest call writing for 7/05/2020. Also a bigger announcement is on cards
"The Stimulus Package" which is expected to be announce during the first week of May, it is quite hard to ascertain whether we have already priced in the stimulus package or not. So for the next one week we will most likely be heading towards 10,000 mark and after that we will see a fall during the last three weeks of May, according to me the levels which I see are 9400,9200,8600 and 8200 falling beyond that will certainly require a very bad news.
The current economic situation is quite bad both nationally and globally but the Central banks of most countries are covering up the Corporate Mess of Debt issue. Nifty most likely wont fall much beyond 8200 in May series.
Nifty Falling beyond 7600 will most likely happen in last week of June or in the month of July when we will have Q1 results and we will be able to ascertain the depth of Corona issue.
One major issue which can drag nifty sharply is multiple "CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES" and "DEFLATORY DEBT TRAP" if this issue arises and stays for 2 or 3 months.
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PS- personally I feel we will not see a sharp fall in nifty like we saw in march so don't have extreme bearish views, because any government wont allow the above things to happen, we will definitely be in rangebound markets for a long time.