Nifty 50指數

NIFTY: The Action, Cut!

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Turning out to be a week of action, one can read it as weak, if you have not expected this much drama from the market.

It all happens and happening in front of us. Camera, Action and Cut.

When it comes to cut, it started with Swiss, added the Candy (Candian Cut), followed by a Danish and topped with Euro Cut. Season of cuts? extrapolation to US?

Remember, in Currency markets it is relative real rates and growth that drives them; hence dollar remains range as part of the larger corrective pattern before the next leg higher. These cuts if any helped the precious metals to move higher or start their next leg higher.

Our own policy rates later in the day though nothing is expected, markets would like to see the presser.

Globally Canada data continues to deteriorate, while Euro on expected downhill, US having its own mixed data that does not suggest any rush to cuts.

Recall BOC comments, easy monetary conditions, allow restrictive fiscal policy measures, watch for more such focus shifting from monetary to fiscal as part of the adjustment.

From the TA Perspective, picked three parts of the larger move of the wedge, first one, move past the 0.786% (the rise and fall largely respected with this channel. Second too, hit 0.786 (plus near 1%). The current one is ferocious, the excess on the top, takes the excess on the bottom too.

We have hit yesterday the 0.786% hence that is the cap for this move. While this holds (one can push little over the 23050 area), and expect a slow griding down, first towards the 22630 and then towards 22380-22230 area.

Reasonable Risk Reward for the shorts here with the above stops and expectation. In-tra week harami pattern, and the PIP graph which is weekly is bearish meeting candle (even if we close near 23000), coming after dark cloud pattern. (ignoring the large wick of the meeting candle)

Supports 22765-22720-22680
Supply 22880-22930-22980

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