The Clever Investor's Bull Case For Nike's Nosedive

Nike NKE has long been a household name, a symbol of global athletic excellence, and a stalwart of blue-chip stocks. Yet, the past few years have painted a picture far from the company’s iconic swoosh. Currently trading at $71.29 on the NYSE, Nike is reeling from a series of missteps that prompted analysts, including Zacks, to designate it as a Strong Sell. So, what happened? And more importantly, could this bear case hold the seeds of a bull case for forward-thinking investors?

A Painful Lesson in Hubris

During the COVID-19 online retail boom, Nike made the bold decision to pivot sharply away from its traditional merchant relationships, aiming to dominate the direct-to-consumer (DTC) space. On paper, it was a savvy move. E-commerce was flourishing, and cutting out middlemen promised higher margins. But the reality was far from Nike’s vision. The decision alienated long-time merchant partners, disrupted sales channels, and, ultimately, led to a steep plunge in revenue. The stock followed suit, spiraling downward and rattling investor confidence.

Nike’s story became a cautionary tale of shortsighted strategy, proving that even giants can stumble.

The Reset: A Glimpse of Hope?

Acknowledging its mistakes, Nike has made significant leadership changes. The most notable? The return of Elliott Hill, a company veteran who first walked through Nike’s doors as an intern in 1980. Hill’s comeback signals a return to the company’s roots, potentially reigniting the brand’s foundational values and reconnecting with its core audiences. Could Hill’s presence mark the beginning of a turnaround story for Nike? If he can channel the magic that once made Nike a global powerhouse, the brand’s resurgence could rival some of the most compelling comebacks in corporate history.

Undervalued or Overlooked?

Here’s where the story takes an interesting turn for investors. At $71.29, Nike’s current share price sits well below the average analyst projection of $84.17 and far from the high-end target of $120. This significant gap raises the question: Is the market over-discounting Nike’s potential?

Consider this: Despite recent missteps, Nike remains a blue-chip stock with a global footprint, brand recognition, and membership in the prestigious Dow Jones Index. For dividend-focused investors, Nike’s recovery could signal not just capital appreciation but also the potential for dividend increases as the company regains its footing. Could this make Nike an attractive opportunity for those with the patience to look several years down the line?

A Strategic Play: LEAPS Options

Likeminded investors intrigued by Nike’s potential but wary of committing significant capital to the stock outright might find value in a LEAPS options strategy. Consider the January 16, 2026, call option with a $70 strike price. It boasts an implied volatility of 30.6685, an open interest sitting at 1,547, and a daily traded volume of 68—demonstrating decent liquidity for a contract set to expire one year out. That’s plenty of time for Nike to hit one of the analyst targets. Let’s dig into this.

Scenario Analysis — Account size: $100,000 | Max Risk: 4% (aggressive) | Analyst 1-year price target @ $120


1. Starter Position
Because some liquidity was already absorbed at the current price level, some investors might be inclined to wait for price to drop below $70. At that point, we might secure a Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities (LEAPS) contract with the better strike price of $70. The options chain tells us we might expect to pay a $10 premium for such a contract. With a maximum 4% risk, we can secure 50% of our position here, meaning we’d spend $2,000 to control $14,000 worth of equity in blue-chip Nike stock.

2. Final Position
The next position we might be interested in adding is at the $65 level. This would account for the lower half of the liquidity imbalance. In many cases, the market may not even penetrate that deeply. However, the tide is against us here, which is why we are being more careful with how we build our position, regardless of the risk-aversion benefits of using options contracts. Estimating from the options chain, we might expect to pay another $10 in premium for the $65 strike price. This brings our total cost of this position to $4,000.

3. Risk Management
One of the reasons I love simple options strategies like this is because the risk is built into the contract. In other words, if the stock absolutely plummets to zero, the most we stand to lose is $4,000 in this example, versus $27,000 if we were to buy the shares outright. This is the primary reason options contracts are the preferred method of acquisition for institutions. You just can’t beat the risk management. Don’t you wish you had 372 days to be right on every trade with a downside capped to a fraction of what you normally risk? Exactly.

4. Exit Strategy 1:
Because I believe in Nike’s comeback story, I’d be willing to hold this trade for the high analyst projection of $120. By the time these levels are reached, investors usually have a change of heart. Additionally, I’d be inclined to keep my shares if we do happen to reach $120 in a year. This way, I can generate income through covered calls/puts without risking my capital. If the stock falls to discounted levels again, I’d be inclined to buy more using a similar strategy.

5. Exit Strategy 2:
If we wanted to realize the capital gains from this trade, we could simply liquidate the two contracts for a potential gain or execute the contracts to capture the gains directly. Here’s what would happen in the latter case:

On our $70 position, we paid a $10 premium. The price of each of those shares is now worth $120. Subtracting our premium and strike price from the target price, we’re left with a potential profit of $8,000 ($40 in profit per share × 200 shares) for our starter position.

On our $65 position, we paid a $10 premium. The price of each of those shares is now worth $120 as well. Subtracting our premium and strike price from the target price, we’re left with a potential profit of $9,000 ($45 in profit per share × 200 shares) for our final position. That leaves us with a total profit of $17,000 (minus transaction fees). Meanwhile, we only ever risked 4% of our account—or $4,000—and had a whole year to be right. Not bad, right?

Risk Aversion With Options

Investors should be aware that the maximum risk is the premium paid for the option. If Nike does not reach its intended targets by the expiration date, the premium could be lost entirely. However, with the flexibility to sell the contract before expiration if conditions change, this strategy offers multiple exit points to mitigate risk.

This approach allows investors to position themselves for potential upside while risking only a defined percentage of their account—in this case, 4% of total account size.

Betting on Leadership and Legacy

While the past may haunt Nike’s valuation today, its future may hinge on leadership—and that’s where Elliott Hill’s return is especially intriguing. Nike is betting on his deep understanding of the company’s DNA to restore the trust and innovation that have historically defined the brand. If Hill can effectively bridge the gap between tradition and modernity, could Nike regain the compelling flame that once set it apart?

The Bigger Picture

Zooming out, the broader retail sector is stabilizing after years of disruption. As supply chains normalize and consumer spending shifts post-pandemic, there may be a window for Nike to execute a well-timed rebound. Investors have seen this before: beaten-down companies surprising the market with a revival that rewards those willing to take the risk.

Final Thought: Risk or Reward?

Nike’s bear case is clear, but so is its potential. The decisions that led to its downturn are being addressed, and its leadership is realigning to focus on long-term growth. The stock’s current valuation may reflect fear, but what if it’s actually an opportunity disguised as risk?

Could this be the moment when contrarian investors start looking at Nike not as a struggling giant, but as a phoenix waiting to rise? History has shown that the market rewards those who can see beyond the headlines. Could Nike’s bear case be the bull story lying in wait? For those with patience and vision, the next chapter might be worth watching closely.

What’s your take on Nike’s potential comeback? Would a LEAPS options strategy make sense for you? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!


General Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice. The information provided does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities, nor does it take into account your specific financial situation, objectives, or risk tolerance.

The views expressed are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Investing involves risks, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

For personalized investment recommendations, please consult a licensed financial advisor. The author assumes no liability for actions taken based on the information provided in this post.