NVDA at Gamma Cliff! Will Buyers Defend $143 or Drop to $140?

🔬 GEX (Options Sentiment) Breakdown:
* Key Gamma Levels:
* CALL Walls / Resistance:
* $146.18 = Gamma Wall (currently rejected)
* $148.84 → 2nd CALL Wall
* $150+ = Higher GEX levels but unlikely short-term without breakout
* PUT Support Zones:
* $143 → active support (currently being tested)
* $140 → key gamma flip zone (GEX8)
* Below $140 → $138 / $135 → deep gamma pit
* GEX Metrics:
* IVR: 2.6 (extremely low = possible vol expansion coming)
* IVx avg: 38.8
* Calls Flow: 7.9% (weak call interest)
* GEX Sentiment: 🟢🟢🟢 (neutral-to-bullish positioning)
* Interpretation:
* NVDA is struggling at $146–147 gamma wall — rejection could cause dealer de-hedging toward $143 or even $140.
* IV is extremely suppressed → any large move could expand volatility and create rapid price shifts.

📊 15-Minute SMC Chart Breakdown:

* Current Price: $145.20
* Structure:
* Price broke bullish structure early session and reached supply near $146.18 → then CHoCH triggered at the top.
* Now pulling back into a minor demand box ($143.68–144.27).
* If demand fails here → eyes on deeper demand at $141.97 and $140.86.
* Major volume spike on pullback shows institutional selling near top.
* Trendline:
* Broke rising wedge → momentum flattening.
* Volume divergence (price up, volume down) followed by breakdown = warning.

🧭 Trade Setups:
🟥 Bearish Setup:
* Trigger: Break below $143.50
* Target 1: $141.97
* Target 2: $140 (GEX zone)
* Stop-loss: $146.20 (back inside supply = invalid)
Dealers could unwind hedges if price stays under $144, accelerating toward gamma-supported downside.

🟩 Bullish Reclaim Setup:
* Trigger: Reclaim and hold $146.20
* Target 1: $148.84 (2nd CALL Wall)
* Target 2: $150+
* Stop-loss: $143.60
This would trap late shorts and could cause a gamma squeeze toward $149–$150.

🧠 My Thoughts:
* NVDA is at the inflection, sandwiched between dealer defense at $146 and GEX vacuum under $143.
* If SPY/QQQ break lower tomorrow, NVDA could lead downside toward $140.
* Volatility is cheap (IVR 2.6), making options attractive if directional bias is strong.
* Ideal trade: wait for confirmation at $144–143 area before entering PUTs.

📌 Conclusion:
NVDA is showing short-term weakness under heavy gamma resistance at $146. A clean breakdown below $143.50 opens the door to $140 fast. Only a reclaim above $146.20 flips bias bullish again.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always trade your own plan and manage risk accordingly.