From Boom to Bust? Nvidia Warns of a Potential 50% Drop

2月6日

After an incredible rally, Nvidia NVDA has finally hit a wall at its all−time high of $140, failing to secure a strong monthly close above this critical resistance level. This stagnation at the peak is a red flag for the stock’s near-term momentum.

Since the rally began in 2016, the monthly chart has been overwhelmingly bullish, with only a few exceptions: 2018, 2022, and now 2024, where the monthly chart has printed a bearish engulfing candle. Historically, when this pattern has appeared, it has led to steep retraces. Based on the median pullback from the past two occurrences, we could see a 50% decline by mid 2025 from current levels, a potential bloodbath for unprepared investors.

Is this a guaranteed outcome? Of course not. But higher timeframes carry significant weight in macro price action, and this bearish signal is too significant to ignore. Stay alert—volatility ahead!

While a short-term pump toward the $140s is more than likely, it’s important to recognize that this move will feel more like a dead cat bounce than a sustainable recovery. For those considering a short position, this potential bounce could offer the perfect entry point.

However, unless NVDA can achieve a strong break above $150 and successfully flip this level into support, there’s no compelling reason to turn bullish here. The macro warning signs remain intact, and the risk of a deeper retrace increases.

3月11日

交易進行

+26% FROM SHORT ENTRY

Price has plummeted as expected delivering massive gains so far. The bearish momentum remains strong, and the downward path is likely to continue nonetheless taking some profit wouldn't hurt... especially after such a strong move.

If price pumps again toward the high $130s, this could present another short entry opportunity, as the bearish market structure remains intact from a macro and short timeframe analysis as well.