NZD to follow AUD with the temporary base

2018年9月12日

=> Again another technical setup here as we await the dollar to be sold for the remainder of the year...
=> We have lost the support at 0.6547 which was the 76.4% retracement level from the rally that lasted from 2015 - 2017
=> This tells us that there will be some soft profit taking here from those who have been short for some months prior...
=> The downtrend is far from over as there is still plenty of eyes on the 0.6417 levels, in our view to get there we need a pullback so that is what we are tracking here.
=> From a fundamental perspective, the main question that still needs answering is whether we will get any news on the global trade front.
=> Trump has continued to escalate the protectionism with China with an additional 200bn in tariffs but we have seen no 'official' announcement as of yet. Until there is clarity we don't see markets extended the downside here.
=> Businesses in New Zealand are skeptical to say the least, and consumers are too. Expectations have declined across the board and profitability is being squeezed especially via rising labour costs.
=> Lets see how it goes...
=> GL