While yesterday's rate decision was a disaster for some (and a major payday for contrarians), some unique cypher-like qualities have come to light on the 1h chart. Most notably is the wick on the 17:00 candle (i.e. false high) post-RBNZ rate decision, which touches the 1.272 extension of a rally between the month-long low around .69500 and a double-top at .7280 (key point of resistance, just check the months prior). Maybe I'm crazy, but I do find this... ironic. Point B passes the .382 but does not move past the .618 retracement, and the D leg is expected to retrace to the .786 extension. While I probably won't enter this trade on my real account, I think it may prove interesting if this does come to fruition.
評論:
The kiwi is rocketing upward following better-than-expected Q2 jobs data, as well as a slightly weakened greenback (temporarily, that is, as there is conflict between lackluster economic data and the growing prospect of a rate hike later this year). The pattern is not yet invalidated, but there's a chance that point C may actually occur if price action steadily leads up to the .73410 level.