NZD/USD Analysis & Probability Assessment

Timeframes Analyzed:
15-Minute (M15)
30-Minute (M30)
1-Hour (H1)
4-Hour (H4)
Daily (D1)

📊 Market Structure Update
✅ Bearish Trend Dominance: The overall structure remains bearish, with multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirming the downtrend.
✅ Current Price Zone (~0.5600 - 0.5620): Price is testing the discount zone, which is a key demand area.
✅ Liquidity Grab Potential: A previous weak low has been taken, indicating possible price reaction.
✅ Premium Zone (~0.5730 - 0.5780): The strongest resistance, where sellers will likely dominate.

🔹 Probability for Trade Setups
1️⃣ Bullish Setup (Higher Probability - 70%)
Entry Zone: 0.5550 - 0.5580 (Discount Zone)
Stop Loss (SL): Below 0.5530
Take Profit (TP): 0.5650 - 0.5670
Probability: 70%
Reasoning:
The discount zone is holding, meaning buyers are stepping in.
RSI recovering from oversold levels.
MACD crossover approaching bullish momentum.
Liquidity sweep of weak lows, increasing reversal chances.
📌 Confirmation Needed:

Bullish candlestick pattern (Engulfing, Hammer, Morning Star)
Volume increase on bullish breakout
RSI moving above 40
2️⃣ Bearish Setup (Lower Probability - 50%)
Entry Zone: 0.5650 - 0.5670 (Resistance Zone)
Stop Loss (SL): Above 0.5700
Take Profit (TP): 0.5580
Probability: 50%

Reasoning:
The overall trend is bearish, but price is at discount demand zone, meaning a reversal is possible.
RSI is still low, signaling price exhaustion.
If price rejects 0.5650 - 0.5670, it could resume downward.
📌 Confirmation Needed:

Bearish candlestick pattern (Engulfing, Shooting Star, Evening Star)
RSI staying below 60
Volume declining near resistance zone

🎯 Final Probability Breakdown
Bullish Trade (Buying at 0.5550 - 0.5580) ➝ 70% Probability
Bearish Trade (Selling at 0.5650 - 0.5670) ➝ 50% Probability

📌 Best Trade for Now: BUY from 0.5550 - 0.5580, as price is reacting to the discount zone and showing bullish signs.