Back to 0.50?

The next important NZD/USD data to watch will be published tomorrow when the US publishes its initial jobless claims. Is expected to show that a forecast from 242 k to 222k, which can be positive for the dollar index.

The Fed will, therefore, maintain its hawkish view if these numbers are correct since they will signal that prices remain significantly high.

There are other inflationary risks ahead. Donald Trump has pledged to impose new and bigger tariffs from top countries. On top of this, he is deporting millions of undocumented migrants, many who work in industries like construction and agriculture.

All these factors explain why US bond yields have rocketed to the highest level in two years, with the 30-year moving to 5%.

On the other hand, the RBNZ has continued to cut interest rates, and analysts expect the trend to continue in the coming months. It slashed them from last year’s high of 5.50% to the current 4.25%. As such, the local currency has fallen as the divergence between the Fed and the RBNZ continues.

Technically, we broke a converging triangle last December, with can lead us to further decline, possibly to the monthly bullish order block at 0.49690. This will complete wave y of superior Y.