CRUDE OIL STRONG SHORT BULLS LOSING MORE

2023年4月28日

STRATEGY SHORT
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WTI bears waiting to pounce but bulls are strong

West Texas Intermediate, WTI, has rallied towards a key resistance area as the following charts will illustrate. However, while a subsequent sell-off might be expected while on the front side of the bearish trendline resistance, there has been a firm layer of support put together near $74.00.

The US oil benchmark is down 4% so far this week, extending a 5.6% drop from the previous period. Data on Thursday showed US economic growth missed forecasts in the first quarter, while a key measure of inflation rose to a one-year high. Investors now brace for future hikes, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank set to raise interest rates again in May. Meanwhile, the latest EIA report revealed US crude inventories decreased by 5.054 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations of a 1.486 million barrel draw.

Morgan Stanley Cuts Oil Price Forecast After OPEC+ Decision


While some analysts started talking about $100 after the surprise OPEC+ cuts, Morgan Stanley is cutting its price forecasts for this year and next, viewing the latest move as a probable admission from the biggest producers in OPEC+ that demand may not be doing too well in the coming months.

“OPEC probably needs to do this to stand still,” Martijn Rats, chief commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, says, as carried by Forexlive.
However, the decision “reveals something, it gives a signal of where we are in the oil market. And look, let’s be honest about this, when demand is roaring…then OPEC doesn’t need to cut,” Rats noted.

So the U.S. bank cut its Brent Crude forecast for the second quarter of 2023 to HKEX:85 from HKEX:90 a barrel previously expected. The third-quarter forecast was also cut by HKEX:5 a barrel—to HKEX:90 from HKEX:95 , while the fourth-quarter price estimate was slashed to $87.50 from HKEX:95 per barrel.

Morgan Stanley also slashed its forecast for Brent’s 2024 average to HKEX:85 from HKEX:95 a barrel.

Citigroup doesn’t see $100 oil soon, either.

2023年5月6日

註釋

US Consumer Credit Beats Estimates

Total consumer credit in the US rose $26.51 billion in March of 2023, after an upwardly revised $15 billion increase in the previous month and well above market expectations of a $16.5 billion rise. On a seasonally adjusted annual basis, consumer credit went up by 6.6 percent in March after a 3.7 percent gain in the prior month. Revolving credit, like credit cards, was up 17.3 percent, compared to a 5.7 percent rise in the prior month. Nonrevolving credit, typically auto and student loans, increased by 3 percent, following a 3.1 percent gain in the prior month.

2023年5月6日

註釋

Week Ahead - May 8th

The upcoming week in the US will be dominated by news related to prices, including the inflation rate, producer prices, and export and import prices, as well as the Michigan consumer confidence CPI gauge. Additionally, CPI figures are scheduled to be released in China, Mexico, Brazil, India, and Russia. In the UK, the Q1 GDP growth data will be released, and investors will be closely monitoring the Bank of England's interest rate decision. Elsewhere, China is set to publish external trade data, and Australia will report on consumer and business confidence.

2023年5月6日

註釋

Oil Soars As U.S. Job Market Stays Strong

traders bet on a rebound after the recent sell-off
WTI oil moved above $71.00 as traders reacted to the Non Farm Payrolls report.
Brent oil settled above $75.00
WTI oil rallied as recession fears eased after the release of Non Farm Payrolls report. Traders used the recent sell-off as an opportunity to build long positions in WTI oil.

If WTI oil climbs above the $71.70 level, it will head towards the resistance at $72.70. A move above $72.70 will push WTI oil towards the $74.00 level.

R1:$71.70 – R2:$72.70 – R3:$74.00

S1:$70.30 – S2:$69.20 – S3:$68.00
Brent oil has also managed to gain strong upside momentum in today’s trading session as risk appetite increased.

If Brent oil moves above the $75.50 level, it will head towards the resistance at $76.25. A move above this level will push Brent oil towards the $77.50 level.

R1:$75.50 – R2:$76.25 – R3:$77.50

S1:$74.60 – S2:$73.00 – S3:$71.70
Crude oil markets have fallen a bit significantly during the trading week, only to turn around and find plenty of buyers willing to step in and trying to pick the market back up. By doing so, the market continues to see extreme volatility.
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fell rather hard during the trading week, as we continue to see a lot of negativity around the idea of global demand. However, the $65 level offered enough support to turn things back around, and it now looks as if we may be trying to find the bottom of a summer range.

This does make a certain amount of sense, as the market tends to find some type of area that it wants to trade in during the “summer driving season” in the United States. If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick though, that would lead to even further losses, and would show that the economy is coming undone completely. On the upside, the 50-Week EMA sits right around $81.65, and that’s somewhere near the top of this overall consolidation area.

Brent Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis
The Brent market also fell rather hard, breaking below the $70 level at one point during the week. However, we have turned around quite drastically to support that area, and now it looks like Brent is finding its own range as well. The 50-Week EMA sits near the $86.50 level, and is offering a significant amount of resistance. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the tale of the candlestick for this week, that would be a very negative turn of events and could send this market down to the $60 level.

Again, both grades of oil are going to be paying close attention to the global economy, and the turnaround that we had seen late in the week was a little bit suspicious, as if somebody was stepping in and trying to support the market.

2023年5月6日

註釋

Week Ahead: US CPI Report May Rock These 3 Markets
Even as anticipation mounts ahead of the US jobs data due later today, investors may be bracing for more volatility in the week ahead thanks to another round of risk events.

Economic Calendar for Next Week
All eyes will be on the incoming US inflation data as well as speeches from financial heavyweights and other risk events which could spark some fresh action across markets.

Monday, May 8

UK bank holiday honouring Charles III coronation
EUR: Germany industrial production, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speech
Tuesday, May 9

CHN: China trade, money supply
AUD: Australia consumer confidence
EUR: ECB Chief Economic Philip Lane speech (IMF)
USD: Fed New York President John Williams speech
US President Joe Biden debt ceiling talks
Wednesday, May 10

EUR: Germany April CPI (final)
USD: US April CPI
Thursday, May 11

CNH: China PPI, CPI
GBP: UK BOE rate decision & press conference
USD: US PPI, initial jobless claims
G7 finance ministers meet in Japan
Friday, May 12

GBP: UK Industrial production, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speech
USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Fed speeches
The April US consumer price index (CPI) report published on Wednesday 10th May will be exactly one week after the Federal Reserve raised rates and signalled a pause in further increases.

Given how Fed Chair Jerome Powell has left the door open to further tightening if incoming economic data warrants, this could add more spice to the report.

CPI Forecasts
Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (April 2023 vs. April 2022) to remain steady at 5.0%.
Core CPI year-on-year to cool 5.4% from the 5.6% in the prior month.
CPI month-on-month (April 2023 vs March 2023) to rise 0.4% from 0.1% in the prior month.
Core CPI month-on-month to cool 0.3% from the 0.4% in the prior month.
Ultimately, further evidence of inflation slowing down could reinforce expectations around the Federal Reserve pausing and eventually cutting interest rates. Should inflation remain sticky, this could rekindle bets around the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer.

Expectations are rising over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates with the chance of a 25-basis point cut in July currently priced at 53%, according to Fed funds futures! It will be interesting to see how the incoming inflation data shapes market expectations around the central bank’s next move.

How Might the Markets React to the CPI Report?
With all of the above discussed, here’s how these 3 assets could react to the US CPI report

USD Index
The past few months have been rough and rocky for the dollar as investors weighed the prospects of the Federal Reserve pausing and then eventually cutting interest rates. More pain could be in store for the dollar if US inflation cools more than expected in April.

A soft inflation print may drag the USD Index toward the 100.72 level. Should prices experience a bearish breakout, this could open the doors toward 100.
A sticky inflation print could throw a lifeline to dollar bulls, propelling back above 101.50 with 102.34 acting as a key level of interest.
SPX500_m
After being trapped within a range for the past few weeks, could a breakout be on the horizon for the SPX500_m?

If the inflation numbers beat expectations, this may trigger a bearish breakout on the SPX500_m – taking prices below the 4050-support level.
Should the inflation numbers come in lower than market forecasts, SPX500_m bulls could be injected with renewed confidence as expectations intensify over the Fed ending its rate cycle. This could send the index back toward the 4180 resistance level and beyond.
Gold
It may be wise to fasten your seatbelts for potential volatility on gold due to its high sensitivity to inflation data and US interest rate expectations. The precious metal remains bullish on the daily charts despite prices pulling back from near-record highs.

A soft inflation report could sweeten appetite for the zero-yielding asset as bets rise over the Fed cutting rates in 2023. This development could push the metal back towards the 2023 high of $2063 with bulls eyeing $2070 and the all-time high at $2075.
A stronger-than-expected inflation number could drag gold prices back toward the psychological $2000 level.