monkia
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OMGUSD - potential opportunity to buy in

BITFINEX:OMGUSD   OmiseGo / Dollar
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1009 6
I believe OMG is a good opportunity long term, you can read more about why here : 500% return and 5 other reasons you should buy OMG

We are setting up for a POTENTIAL buy opportunity. IF it plays out, it can allow you to get in or double down on your position.

OMGUSD has been in a consolidation phase after a strong impulse up on 5 Jan. Within that time the resistance at 19 has held, giving us confidence in our position. Between now and Monday, whilst being mindful of what is happening with BTCUSD , the market could sideways trade around the 21.5 area until we meet the medium and long term trend lines (green/pink). This is also likely to coincide with a meeting of the 50MA. At this point the market MAY decide to continue the bull run. This should see it going up to around 28-30. Although there is resistance at 26 along the way. The signal is it getting close to (slightly before or slightly past ) the trend lines and then a reversal. We should see this action over a sustained period - e.g. on the 6 hour chart. Risk management can be via a STOP below the support area , between 17-19 depending upon your risk appetite.

I do NOT recommend buying in advance, wait for the signal.

Signal : Hitting the trend line and bouncing up (6 hour chart)
Target 1 : 28-30 (but you could take some profit at 26)
Target 2 : 38
Stop loss : Between 17-19

I'll keep this post updated if it receives 10 or more likes (thumbs up).
評論: Reviewing the candles chart, its clear to see that OMG consolidated down to the resistance trend line and has entered an upward trend from there. To reduce the risk of buying the break, I wanted a longer consolidation period and for it to test the resistance line again before the break. The up impulse therefore doesn't have as much momentum (spring) and the resistance around 26 is more likely to pose a threat. I therefore didnt double down at this stage.

So where does this leave us? I see four likely scenarios that all keep the main bull trend intack.

P1) Continues up to the trend line resistance (diagonal blue) and breaks through
P2) Continues up to the trend line resistance (diagonal blue) and consolidates back down to the bottom support 25-26 (diagonal green).
P3) Doesn't break the 26 resistance and consolidates back down to the bottom support 23-24 (diagonal green).
P4) Lacks momentum in current impulse and comes back to support line 21-22(diagonal green).

Not that helpful I here you say? By understanding what events could unfold, it stops us either buying at the wrong time or panic selling when the price goes down. The above scenarios are all normal market behaviours. The key is to watch for the opportunities which minimise risk and maximise up side. OMG is a great medium term opportunity. This go around, for my risk profile (yours may be different), the TA didn't align for a short term (1-5 day) opportunity.

Main trend: Bull
Short term trend : Bull

評論: Without sufficient consolidation after the last impulse up, the spring lacked the momentum required to get it through the resistance at 26 and it looks like path P3 is unfolding . I am now looking for OMGUSD to either trade sideways or down to go back the green resistance line. IF this happens, I'll look to double down on my position.



This could align nicely with OMGBTC meeting its bottom resistance line and therefore provide extra momentum for the next impulse, allowing it to break through the 26 resistance.



OMG may simply go up from here, which is fine, I still have my long position but I won't be doubling down unless the risk balances in my favour.
評論: OMGUSD tested the resistance line again and so I took the opportunity to buy in some more.



Things are looking pretty good and it's working through that upward channel to $26 with a target of $30.

It continues to appreciate against BTC, and is supported by an upward diagonal in the short term. There is resistance just under 0.0018 which we need it to break through if OMGUSD is going to break the $26 resistance and reach $30. I'm also not ruling out a return to the bottom resistance line again.

評論: OMG has been following the progress (or lack there of) of BTC for the past weeks. BTCs dramatic fall blew apart all of the TA analysis we had been looking at for OMG. For now I am focused on its performance relative to BTC. The chart below shows it has been within a consolidation triangle since early January. These are typically continuation patterns and break in the prevailing direction, in this case up. It is now attempting to breakout of this triangle. It's failed twice in the past few hours but continues to try.
OMG has been following the progress (or lack there of) of BTC for the past weeks. BTCs dramatic fall blew apart all of the TA analysis we had been looking at for OMG. For now I am focused on its performance relative to BTC. The chart below shows it has been within a consolidation triangle since early January. These are typically continuation patterns and break in the prevailing direction, in this case up. It is now attempting to breakout of this triangle. It's failed twice in the past few hours but continues to try.

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@monika Love your charts.So what's your prediction on OMG's price in 2018?
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@monkia, Love the charts. Thank you. I'm tracking OMG closely and yours are top notch!
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@nfs5, thanks for the feedback!
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Please keep updating! I love your posts, and your passion for OMG :)
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monkia SuperMario4
@SuperMario4, appreciate the feedback. I love it when both TA and the fundamentals in the coin/team align. Given it is mid cap (just top 20) I wouldn't normally weight too much of my portfolio towards it, but I really do think at the current value, this is a no brainier. Let's hope the market continues to agree :-)
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