Ok. There are tens of thousands of Altcoins trading pairs and this is the reason why it is obvious to consider each pair individually. There is no point in making generalisations because there are just too many of us.
Some people can have a 1-3% stop-loss while others can have a 20-30% stop-loss. A correction can affect very different an investor, a long-term trader, a day-trader, scalper, futures trader and so on.
Some will go down while others go up but there is a way to identify exactly at which point in the cycle each pair is currently at.
As always, I am an open book ... and I am sharing my experience, wisdom and knowledge with you. I am sending you LOVE! ... Know, that I love YOU!
Ok, let's get started!
➖ How do I know if the trading pair that I am interested in is likely to move lower or higher based on the current market situation?
➖ How do I know how far down a pair can go in this correction?
Let's start by saying that we can't know for sure and thus we are only going to be making some approximations. We look at the pairs that are more advanced within the current market cycle and whatever they are doing the rest will do the same. This is the method we used to find the main resistance levels on the way up for the previous bullish wave and the method I used to find the main support levels for the current bearish wave. It is the same method I will use to predict the next set of targets when the next bullish wave comes in a matter of months.
The majority of the Altcoins (we are talking about USDT pairs here), hit a low around September/October 2023. All these Altcoins went ahead to produce a very strong bullish wave. This wave peaked late 2023 for many, many Altcoins —some of the smaller ones that many of you are not looking at, while others continued through 2024 and present day.
Now, some pairs grew between 2-3X while others grew 10-15X. The correction potential for those that grew between 10-15X is much stronger compared to those that grew only 2-3X. Cardano is a great example; while some other projects (like Solana) have to move much lower, Cardano doesn't have much lower to go or the bottom might be already in. Might be, there can be another drop but just to give you an example.
Another example is XRPUSDT. This pair potentially bottomed while some others still have to go through the whole corrective phase. Now, and this is the hard part, many pairs are in-between their correction and these are the ones that I want to expose to you.
Say the bullish wave is over, Solana (SOLUSDT).
👉 The correction is likely to end around the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib. retracement range for the entire bullish wave.
We can be talking about a bullish wave that lasted 300 days or 30 days, makes no difference at this point.
We plot the "Fib Retracement" tool with the value '0' being the last high, this is the price that hit early 2024 or late 2023 for most pairs. The next value, '1', should be plotted at the last major low before the bullish wave; the bearish cycle bottom. Doing this will give you the Fibonacci retracement numbers for the entire bullish wave.
If you find a pair, using the weekly timeframe, where a wick or candle pierced through these levels, you can feel sure that the correction low is likely in. If it isn't in, then one more low and that's it.
This low won't necessarily lead to a straight up arrow as the next bullish jump. If it does, it would be a wave five of a bullish impulse leading to a major correction then higher low before the bull-market takes place.
Now, the general scenario that is likely to develop on most chart goes as follows: A drop in the above mentioned range, then an accumulation/consolidation phase forming kind of a cup pattern, can last 2-4 months and then the action starts going all the way through 2025 and new All-Time Highs.
The correction cannot be avoided. We have a long-term triple top.
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