Short on Palantir

2024年10月18日

Palantir's stock is facing several risks that could justify a short position. Its overvaluation is evident, trading at a P/E ratio of around 247 after a 150% surge in 2024, implying that future growth is heavily priced in; if the company doesn't meet these expectations, a sharp correction could occur​. Insider selling over the past 90 days has raised doubts about confidence in Palantir’s future, despite some sales being pre-planned. The stock's gains are tied closely to the AI boom, but there's skepticism over whether Palantir's contracts can maintain momentum, leading to concerns that AI hype may not translate into sustainable growth​. Analysts give the stock a "Reduce" rating with a consensus target suggesting a 33% downside, highlighting the potential risk of a pullback​.

Furthermore, the stock appears technically overbought, increasing the likelihood of profit-taking and a subsequent decline​. Also, it is posible that Palantir is done with the fifth and the last Elliott Wave, and ABC corrective wave are incoming, hence entering a short position (Put) at price $42.00, first target price $32.0 at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line, and the second target price 0.382 Fib retracement line $24.0.

A less than perfect earning will help us to get there.

2024年11月15日

手動結束交易

Closed the trade at loss, due to the expiration date of the put option, will come back with an updated analysis, the fundamental analysis of the stock remain, will enter another short trade for Palantir