The US Treasury 2-year and 10-year spread never lies.

The US Treasury 2-year and 10-year spread never lies.

Of course, this is based on historical data, as whenever the spread between the 2-year and 10-year bonds turns positive from a negative value, it is typically followed by stagnation in the bond market.
However, alongside this, we cannot ignore several important factors:

1. "Trump's trade", as such, did not take place, and the market considers it overestimated, showing no desire to buy more.

2. Inflation and the resulting monetary policy continue to create unpredictability.

3. The ongoing escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war and the overall geopolitical situation are not conducive to further growth.

4. The potential wave of protectionism, which would ignore soft fiscal policies.
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