RTY Update

已更新

Waaaay overbought but it does have a cup and handle pattern going on. I think we get a reversal tomorrow and a dip Tuesday.... or maybe a dip tomorrow, I dunno.

CPI was bullish but I don't chase overbought markets. Will decide what to do Tuesday. Bought some PDD puts just so I watch the market tomorrow. Just guessing that Asians were the ones dumping futures in the afternoon.

註釋

There's a Fed member speaking EVERY DAY next week

There's still fear of the Fed, so probably a reversal tomorrow

註釋

CPI is one thing, but I'm looking at commodity prices, and traders are back on the pump. I think the Fed crushes the market again in Feb despite CPI numbers, and they go .50%.

We wouldn't have so much whipsaw and fake rallies if Powell was a lot more blunt and flat out just told the market to stop pumping commodities. Idiot. It's like he doesn't know how the market works, it's all futures trading fueled by his dumbass QE.

Market and commodities keep pumping because the Fed hasn't reduced their balance sheet. They can't because they're upside down on all of the MBS they bought. All they can do is let them expire. It's a slow process, look at the chart:

federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

註釋

Expecting a whipsaw week next week because EUR CPI numbers and Fed members talking. I suspect that at least one member will tank the market, but no idea which one. I will try to post the schedule every morning since they talk at different times, but you should check the calendar yourself:

forexfactory.com/calendar?week=jan15.2023