After seeing such a steep recent decline I started looking for signs of a bullish bounce. Unfortunately, it looks brutal:
1. recently retraced more than 100% of previous up-move, which indicated additional consolidation / correction is needed.
2. While it is a little messy, I can make out a 5 wave down move from the 2012 highs. This would mean we are likely only slightly over half-way in the current correction.
3. The symmetrical triangle is also likely part of primary wave B (which often takes the form of a triangle) and it indicates continuation in this case.
If there wasn't significant selling pressure then wave (C) would normally surpass (A). The move could go to $270 if the primary wave C meets a 1:1 extension of wave A. If I end up trading this I will lock in profits along the way in case primary wave C doesn't meet a 1:1 extension.
I am not a financial professional. This is a 100% technical analysis and has not considered any fundamental factors. I prefer to present both views normally, but if there is a bullish case I can't see it from the price action alone.
1. recently retraced more than 100% of previous up-move, which indicated additional consolidation / correction is needed.
2. While it is a little messy, I can make out a 5 wave down move from the 2012 highs. This would mean we are likely only slightly over half-way in the current correction.
3. The symmetrical triangle is also likely part of primary wave B (which often takes the form of a triangle) and it indicates continuation in this case.
If there wasn't significant selling pressure then wave (C) would normally surpass (A). The move could go to $270 if the primary wave C meets a 1:1 extension of wave A. If I end up trading this I will lock in profits along the way in case primary wave C doesn't meet a 1:1 extension.
I am not a financial professional. This is a 100% technical analysis and has not considered any fundamental factors. I prefer to present both views normally, but if there is a bullish case I can't see it from the price action alone.
評論:
Sorry about the title typo :(