Sensex Structure Analysis & Trade Plan: 30th September

Detailed Market Structure Breakdown

4-Hour Chart (Macro Trend)

Structure: The Sensex is in an accelerated corrective phase, trading within a steep descending channel. The price broke below the 81,800 and 81,000 supports and is now testing the key macro demand zone around 80,400 - 80,600. This area is a significant Bullish Order Block (OB) and a vital horizontal support.

Key Levels:

Major Supply (Resistance): 81,000 - 81,200. This previous support is now the crucial overhead resistance, aligning with the upper boundary of the descending channel.

Major Demand (Support): 80,400 - 80,600. This is the key "line in the sand." A sustained breakdown below 80,300 would signal a deeper correction toward 79,500.

Outlook: The bearish pressure has paused, and the market is attempting to stabilize at a key support. This indicates a potential range-bound trade or a technical bounce.

1-Hour Chart (Intermediate View)

Structure: The 1H chart is strongly bearish, confined to a descending channel. Monday's session saw the price attempt to break below the lower trendline of the channel but failed, resulting in a Doji-like or consolidation candle right on the 80,400 support. This suggests buyers are defending this area.

Key Levels:

Immediate Resistance: The upper trendline of the descending channel, currently near 80,750 - 80,800.

Immediate Support: 80,300. This is the lower boundary of the current demand zone.

15-Minute Chart (Intraday View)

Structure: The 15M chart shows clear consolidation, marked by a tight, sideways movement following the initial morning move. The price made a BOS on the downside but quickly recovered, and is now trading around a minor Order Block (OB) and FVG (Fair Value Gap).

Key Levels:

Intraday Supply: 80,800. This is the high of the recent small consolidation and the immediate resistance.

Intraday Demand: 80,300. The crucial support for the open.

Outlook: Neutral-to-Bullish for the session open, focused on a breakout from the tight consolidation.

Trade Plan (Tuesday, 30th September)

Market Outlook: Sensex is at a major support level. The strategy is to be reactive, waiting for a break of the tight consolidation boundaries.

Bullish Scenario (Reversal/Bounce Plan)

Justification: The strong defense of the 80,400 support and the recovery from the day's low suggest a potential short-covering rally.

Entry: Long entry on a decisive break and 15-minute candle close above 80,800 (breaking the recent consolidation high).

Stop Loss (SL): Below 80,400.

Targets:

T1: 81,000 (Psychological/Channel Resistance).

T2: 81,200 (Previous support/FVG zone).

T3: 81,600 (Major supply zone).

Bearish Scenario (Continuation Plan)

Justification: The continuation of the strong bearish trend following the breakdown of previous structure.

Entry: Short entry on a decisive break and 15-minute candle close below 80,300.

Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss above 80,550.

Targets:

T1: 80,000 (Psychological support).

T2: 79,500 - 79,700 (Major 4H demand zone).

Key Levels for Observation:

Immediate Decision Point: The 80,300 - 80,800 zone.

Bearish Confirmation: A break and sustained move below 80,300.

Bullish Confirmation: A recapture of the 80,800 level.

Line in the Sand: 80,300. The market remains under strong bearish pressure below this level.