Silver SI1 - $35 Is as Far Away as Saturn
已更新
One of the most dangerous things about what is going on in the world today, and thereby the markets, is that the middle and lower classes of society are being directly targeted.
There are different forms that the Marxist principle of "Redistribution of Wealth" takes.
Decades ago, it took the form of the "scum of society" being mobilized by the Communist Party to invade and occupy places such as farmland. Then, the evil regime would let the anarchists hold the land for a few years, before ultimately sending in the military to slaughter them and take it for themselves.
This is what "communism" and its precursor "socialism" are really all about, and you'd be wise to reject the entire thing if you want nary a hair of a future.
In recent history, we saw a manifestation of this scheme when the Antifa and Black Lives Matter anarchist groups destroyed property unchecked during the "Summer of Love" riots. That property, which previously belonged to small business owners, often had insurance claims denied and was scooped up on the cheap by large corporations.
In present history, the establishment is simply using a combination of the marketplace and "inflation" to achieve the same ends.
The problem for silver/gold/platinum bulls is that much of the reason you are bullish is predicated on the narrative disseminated to you that "the dollar is going to go bust because the FEDERAL RESERVE keeps PRINTING MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR and what happens when we can't SERVICE OUR NATIONAL DEBT ANYMORE?!"
This is all true, but you should really give it some thought: in the age of computers, social credit, digital identity, and central bank digital currencies, did you really think that the answer to this problem lied in trading metal for rice and flour like we did in traditional times?
You should always remember that the markets can, and will, remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.
Some people turned all of their cash into silver and gold, and a bunch of canned fish and beans, waiting for the Mad Max days. Well, what lies ahead is a painful rout on consumer commodities, personal debt, and personal incomes that will leave people desperate and in need of cash liquidity to survive.
And in order to get that cash liquidity, they'll have to sell the silver bars they paid $25-30 for over the course of the last two years back to the fence at prices like $7 or $8.
To be clear: if high prices of the commodity will hurt the middle class, i.e. natural gas, oil, corn, wheat, prices will go UP.
If low prices of the commodity will hurt the middle class, i.e. silver, gold, bonds, prices will go DOWN.
It's going to look something like this (disclaimer: I'm no artist.)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/f2CqMOyv/
And although you might think to yourself something like "single digit silver again? What a buying opportunity," or "Lmao it'll never drop that far" you should bear in mind this is only true if it bounces in two days back to new highs like it did during "Coronavirus Disease 2019" hysterics, and it'll "drop that far" exactly because retail is thinking "it'll never drop that far" and will fancy themselves brilliant to HELOC and rent a dump truck at $16 and $12, only to get crushed.
If prices are depressed over the long term you won't feel it's very fun to spend money on a bunch of metal that tarnishes brown if you leave it merely sitting on your desk.
I have some. I really like it. But it tarnishes brown while sitting on my desk. Even a dollar store fork doesn't do that.
After retail and the middle class have totally capitulated their spot metals, then, and only then, will we see $35, then $50, then three digit silver.
Of course, this assumes that this society can last that long. And although it can't, the sociopaths on Wall Street will continue with their plans even as the stars in the sky explode before our very eyes.
In the meantime, you should be clear that this is no dip to buy. Silver has no price action to make at $21 until a major reversal, which is not on the horizon, and it is not going to double bottom in any meaningful way at $18.
Ironically you can still blindly short this and if your leverage isn't horrific and your timing isn't worse, you'll make some good money.
There are different forms that the Marxist principle of "Redistribution of Wealth" takes.
Decades ago, it took the form of the "scum of society" being mobilized by the Communist Party to invade and occupy places such as farmland. Then, the evil regime would let the anarchists hold the land for a few years, before ultimately sending in the military to slaughter them and take it for themselves.
This is what "communism" and its precursor "socialism" are really all about, and you'd be wise to reject the entire thing if you want nary a hair of a future.
In recent history, we saw a manifestation of this scheme when the Antifa and Black Lives Matter anarchist groups destroyed property unchecked during the "Summer of Love" riots. That property, which previously belonged to small business owners, often had insurance claims denied and was scooped up on the cheap by large corporations.
In present history, the establishment is simply using a combination of the marketplace and "inflation" to achieve the same ends.
The problem for silver/gold/platinum bulls is that much of the reason you are bullish is predicated on the narrative disseminated to you that "the dollar is going to go bust because the FEDERAL RESERVE keeps PRINTING MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR and what happens when we can't SERVICE OUR NATIONAL DEBT ANYMORE?!"
This is all true, but you should really give it some thought: in the age of computers, social credit, digital identity, and central bank digital currencies, did you really think that the answer to this problem lied in trading metal for rice and flour like we did in traditional times?
You should always remember that the markets can, and will, remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.
Some people turned all of their cash into silver and gold, and a bunch of canned fish and beans, waiting for the Mad Max days. Well, what lies ahead is a painful rout on consumer commodities, personal debt, and personal incomes that will leave people desperate and in need of cash liquidity to survive.
And in order to get that cash liquidity, they'll have to sell the silver bars they paid $25-30 for over the course of the last two years back to the fence at prices like $7 or $8.
To be clear: if high prices of the commodity will hurt the middle class, i.e. natural gas, oil, corn, wheat, prices will go UP.
If low prices of the commodity will hurt the middle class, i.e. silver, gold, bonds, prices will go DOWN.
It's going to look something like this (disclaimer: I'm no artist.)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/f2CqMOyv/
And although you might think to yourself something like "single digit silver again? What a buying opportunity," or "Lmao it'll never drop that far" you should bear in mind this is only true if it bounces in two days back to new highs like it did during "Coronavirus Disease 2019" hysterics, and it'll "drop that far" exactly because retail is thinking "it'll never drop that far" and will fancy themselves brilliant to HELOC and rent a dump truck at $16 and $12, only to get crushed.
If prices are depressed over the long term you won't feel it's very fun to spend money on a bunch of metal that tarnishes brown if you leave it merely sitting on your desk.
I have some. I really like it. But it tarnishes brown while sitting on my desk. Even a dollar store fork doesn't do that.
After retail and the middle class have totally capitulated their spot metals, then, and only then, will we see $35, then $50, then three digit silver.
Of course, this assumes that this society can last that long. And although it can't, the sociopaths on Wall Street will continue with their plans even as the stars in the sky explode before our very eyes.
In the meantime, you should be clear that this is no dip to buy. Silver has no price action to make at $21 until a major reversal, which is not on the horizon, and it is not going to double bottom in any meaningful way at $18.
Ironically you can still blindly short this and if your leverage isn't horrific and your timing isn't worse, you'll make some good money.
註釋
Actually, if you're going to trade silver/gold, wait until Jackson Hole on Thursday and Friday.Metals like to go up and down back and forth in a straight line in huge ranges every time there's a Federal Reserve event, which makes not getting liquidated/stopped out rather difficult.
註釋
Seriously though, silver is not going to double bottom and bounce:It's going back to $15-17
註釋
Silver, notably, did not even try to double bottom and bounce.Bad news for bugs.
註釋
Don't get too excited on the run below the lows and the bounce. It didn't bother to decapitate the bulls @ the June 2020 low of $17.015.Also, Gold has a pretty fat double bottom @ ~$1,660.
No bottom until those are gone, for sure.
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