This 60m chart of SJM shows a decisive sell-off from 126 to 96 (20%+) between April and June. Even without knowing the larger degree wave count, it seems fair to label the move as a Wave 3 based on the prior structure of Waves 1 & 2, as well as the momentum measured by RSI. Technical indicators are typically strongest during Wave 3, which is evidenced by RSI holding below 60 throughout the sell-off.
I'm counting the ongoing consolidation as a Wave 4 triangle which, if broken, should lead to a subsequent push lower in Wave 5. Initiating a short position at 108.50 for a move back toward 98.50. A sustained rally up to 118.50 will cause me to reevaluate the trade.
I'm counting the ongoing consolidation as a Wave 4 triangle which, if broken, should lead to a subsequent push lower in Wave 5. Initiating a short position at 108.50 for a move back toward 98.50. A sustained rally up to 118.50 will cause me to reevaluate the trade.