S&P 500--Early Warning--The Top Is In

2021年9月13日

EARLY WARNING. The S&P 500 hasn't closed under the daily 500 HULL for longer than one day in a row since the covid crash rebounded over the 500 HULL back in June 2020. Today marks the first two day close under the 500 HULL in over a year. This is an early call and might change if we rebound and close the week above the 500 HULL.... but right now I'm gonna say odds are good the equity market top is in. You heard it here first.

2021年9月16日

註釋

Now on our 5th day under the daily 500 Hull Moving Average. The market tried to push over yesterday but was rejected again. I expect more and more people will notice how different the current price action is compared to the past year. It's called weakness, get used to it. If we close the week under the HULL I suspect it will get significantly worse.

2021年9月20日

註釋

Closed under the daily 500 HULL Friday and carnage today as expected. This is just beginning. This is the point where "something has changed" is now apparent to everyone.

We'll could fall for a while as the market ran up so much the last year. But it's also likely at some point to rebound back up to the 500 HULL and that will be THE point to short if/when we get rejected there again. But that will take some time to play out.

Crypto is falling in sympathy with the market so far, but it's worth noting crypto was created for the specific purpose to be a lifeboat from a failing financial system. If this Chinese financial event turns into a global crisis, then we'll get a chance to see if crypto acts as it was designed. Either way I'm more interested in what is happening with crypto than I am with the equity market these days.

2021年9月24日

註釋

The daily 500 HULL is at 4520 (and still rising for the moment). I don't expect we'll be able to get back above the HULL. If we run back up to it, that is a great point to short.

2021年9月28日

註釋

Moved back up and failed to make a newer high. Instead we might have just made a lower high. Everyone see how different this behavior is? That might have been all the restest we get before further new lows.

2021年10月13日

註釋

I don't know if the market has topped, but so far this is looking like a very respectable top call. The potential for a move up to make a lower-high before the big drop lower is still likely.

2021年10月19日

註釋

Assuming the market has already topped out, this is a good point to call a lower high / double top. However that can't be known for sure until it actually fails to break new all time highs.

I would say here is a pretty obvious short, however the trillions of dollars they've been throwing around to keep everything levitated has been a problem for the bears and might continue to be. Equity markets in highly inflating countries keep going up and up as the value of the currency declines. And if you've bought any gas, groceries, or housing lately you know the value of the currency has fallen significantly since the covid crisis.

2021年11月3日

交易結束：達到停損點

Solid break over the 500 day HULL and has held so far. We need a retest and hold the retest to be sure, but I'm going to close this anyway. Seems like the insanity up will never end, never mind all the crappy fundamentals. Stick to crypto, the equity market is just silly and dangerous at this point.