SPX Daily TA Cautiously Bearish

2022年12月10日

SPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash.

*US November PPI came in at 0.3%, a bit higher than the consensus estimate of 0.2% after rising 0.2% in October. This sent Risk-On markets lower as fears of another 75bps rate hike returned to the table. One good thing about November's PPI is that it increased 7.4% from last November, compared to 8.1% in October. Expectations for China's reopening are continuing to materialize as 28 oil tankers remain backlogged in the Black Sea due to Turkey's recent request for insurance checks on Russian oil tankers. Meanwhile the EU faces an energy crisis exacerbated by recent oil price caps and the Russia/Ukraine war that many fear will spill over into a global financial meltdown. However, if US November CPI prints lower and the FOMC follows through on a loose commitment to a 50bps rate hike, selling pressure may be alleviated in the near term.

DXY, US Treasurys, VIX, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100, Energy and Metals finished up on the day. US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Agriculture and EURUSD finished down.

Key Upcoming Dates: US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23.*

Price finished the day trending down at $3934 after being rejected by the uptrend line from 10/13 as resistance, it's now approaching a retest of $3913 minor support. Volume remains Moderate (moderate) and favored sellers in today's session after favoring buyers in the previous two sessions, a clear indication of PPI induced fears. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4090, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 49 after being rejected by 52.68 resistance, the next support is the uptrend line from January 2022 at 46. Stochastic remains bearish after a bullish crossover attempt was rejected at 5, it is currently trending down at 3.5 as it approaches a retest of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 33 support. ADX is currently trending down at 15 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment.

If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the uptrend line from 10/13 at ~4K as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally retest $3913 minor support before potentially retesting the 50MA at $3840 as support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4058.