Is it really as easy as "sell in May and go away" (until November)? We're about to find out.
This week I'm adding a few more vivid visuals with thick 100d and 200d sma lines. Look to the left and see what happens when they cross. A look to the right says we're nowhere near that happening (soon). Most technical analysts are looking at the same picture, but drawing different conclusions. Namely the triangle pattern from the 1/26/18 high to various peaks/valleys since then. With so many fixated on that formation be careful about false breakouts in either direction.
Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) helps with setting expectations. Wave 4 corrections as triangles are considered to be the final event before a final wave 5. The triangle is exited from the direction from which it was entered, in this case upward. Entry was from the January run up, followed by the first drop at 1/26/18 as wave "a" of "abcde" using respective peaks/valleys since 1/26/18.
At present, wave "d" is about to end, unless it already did at (peak) on 4/18/18. My primary read is it will end soon near 2700 followed by "e" as a small decline before moving higher. Quite often wave "e" is short and doesn't reach the lower trend line of the triangle.
After "e" comes the upward "thrust" of wave 5. Early estimate is to target the distance (triangle's width) using the initial drop (wave "a" that started 1/26/18 at 2873 to the low it reached in early February at 2532).
Sell in May....(maybe not).
This week I'm adding a few more vivid visuals with thick 100d and 200d sma lines. Look to the left and see what happens when they cross. A look to the right says we're nowhere near that happening (soon). Most technical analysts are looking at the same picture, but drawing different conclusions. Namely the triangle pattern from the 1/26/18 high to various peaks/valleys since then. With so many fixated on that formation be careful about false breakouts in either direction.
Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) helps with setting expectations. Wave 4 corrections as triangles are considered to be the final event before a final wave 5. The triangle is exited from the direction from which it was entered, in this case upward. Entry was from the January run up, followed by the first drop at 1/26/18 as wave "a" of "abcde" using respective peaks/valleys since 1/26/18.
At present, wave "d" is about to end, unless it already did at (peak) on 4/18/18. My primary read is it will end soon near 2700 followed by "e" as a small decline before moving higher. Quite often wave "e" is short and doesn't reach the lower trend line of the triangle.
After "e" comes the upward "thrust" of wave 5. Early estimate is to target the distance (triangle's width) using the initial drop (wave "a" that started 1/26/18 at 2873 to the low it reached in early February at 2532).
Sell in May....(maybe not).