The Bull Case Inside the Overall Bear Market

2022年6月7日

I had the markets in wave 1532C, but a few things happened late or not at all. In fact, this whole downturn in January was 2 months sooner than I had initially forecasting. Timing the market is hard, and I not perfect. Learning from my mistakes and asking what could have happened or where did I go wrong is what makes me better at all of this. I have missed three calls so far so I began to ask why?

I initially called wave A down prematurely. Instead of calling out the bottom of A, I found what I then thought was the bottom of wave 3 inside of A. Then, I misidentified the end of B, but it happens. I was wrong on A, but for good reason. A would have been a 5 wave pattern down, followed by a 3-wave pattern upward for wave B. I found the 5 waves and 3 waves so I asked what else could this be? The economy is not getting better as long as fuel prices rise. These prices will continue to elevate the price of everything until it is addressed. I had us coming out of this mess a week ago, but the economy and Fed never made sense to me. I assumed it would be a quick end to the war as well. I have been wrong, but why?

I identified 5 waves down but that is because we were in wave 1 of wave A. What the 3 waves for my wave B call was actually the 3 waves of a wave 2 inside of wave A. Everything stemmed from my identification of the COVID crash in March 2020. I marked that anomaly as the wrong wave structure but never felt right about it. I have now re-marked the waves in the chart above and will eventually have all of the statistics to test my newest theory.



I had us about to wrap up Cycle wave 2 inside of Supercycle wave 3. I no longer believe we are that far along. I still have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877) and Grand Supercycle wave 5 which began March 2009. However, I only have the market in Supercycle wave 2 and Cycle wave A—-both beginning in January this year. I further have us in Primary wave 4 which should end soon and we will likely continue our downward movement below the prior low of 3810.32 before then end of June. This would finally end Cycle wave A.

Next step is a 3-wave structure upward over the next 1-2 months which could top between 4400-4900. I will have more details soon. We will then find the new bottom in a 5-wave downward pattern which will complete Cycle wave C and Supercycle wave 2. This would likely occur 3-5 months after it begins with a low between 3000-3300.

This structure fits much more inline with the economic outlook and fuel prices. The new Congress sits in January in the US as well. As long as Congress and the White House are controlled by differing parties, lopsided legislation capable of harming half the country should not pass. Fuel prices will only get better with unilateral action from the White House, some sort of bi-partisanship, or a majority strong enough to override a veto (this longshot is doubtful, but so were the Bengals to make it to the Super Bowl).

If this structure is correct, the first thing to occur will be a break to the downside within the next 3-5 trading days at the latest. If this structure is wrong, we will move above 4800 before we go below 4000 and I will once again ask why en route to the next theory.