Updated my multi-year wave analysis. It helped me sort out the market moves last week that had me confused. I believe that we are just finishing wave 2 of a 5 impulse corrective wave C of a regular flat. Could there be a little more up, maybe, but IMO unlikely. There is no good news from a TA standpoint that I can find within the next few months. IMO, we are at least going to see 2587 (0.618 retrace), which would put us around beginning of April levels. Maybe the Fed pump will keep it from getting worse. However, if we are unlucky enough and it keeps going down, then the next two stops are 2191 (March 23rd bottom) or worse at 1947 (2016 levels). I am not sure how to estimate the amount of time it will take. Corrections in the past have lasted years, but things seem to happen much faster nowadays. Given the velocity of the March drop then I would expect this to unfold within in a few months (end of October).
FYI, the same pattern is developing in the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq looks to be in an Expanded Flat Corrective wave. It hit 1.236 of Wave A on Thursday, whereas the S&P only hit 0.854.
Hope I am wrong and hope this helps in some way. Good luck out there.
FYI, the same pattern is developing in the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq looks to be in an Expanded Flat Corrective wave. It hit 1.236 of Wave A on Thursday, whereas the S&P only hit 0.854.
Hope I am wrong and hope this helps in some way. Good luck out there.
評論:
The Feb pump is strong today.
