Cyclical Apocalypse 2023

2022年11月12日

The recession we predicted in August is almost here. Prepare for monetary meltdown. Things to look forward to next year:

• Mass layoffs (started in q4) and spike in unemployment rate
  
• Retail earnings miss heavily with a bad holiday season
  
• Industrial production drops sharply
  
• Used car bubble pops
  
• Mass consumer defaults on car loans
  
• Housing market collapse
  
• Credit spread blowout
  
• Zombie companies reduced to rubble
  
• Mass bankruptcies
  
• Negative real growth in all four macro sectors (income, production, consumption, employment, etc)
  
• Various crypto exchanges insolvent
  
• Mass panic and bank runs
  
• SPY -30% to -70% drop
  
• Disinflation and then deflation (not stagflation)
  
• Energy bear market
  
• Corporate rates turn into junk
  
• Municipal bond meltdown
  
• Emergency fed pivot but only after something dire breaks
  
• Massive bond rally (tail end)