If History Rhymes, Here Is Top and Bottom

3月7日

I am still quite confident the markets are set to drop significantly in 2024. I have studied correctional wave patterns that are similar to our current situation wherein the market topped on January 4, 2022 and began the corrective pattern.

**The pattern contains a wave B that is larger than wave A in duration and movement. The wave C then moves more than wave B**

The current case so far so the index drop 1,327.04 points over 195 trading days. As of the close on March 6, 2024, wave B has gained 1,658.09 points in 347 trading days (the current top for this calculation is 5149.67 on March 4.

CURRENT SITUATION SO FAR:



I have found similar conditions 11 times historically and studied how waves B and C reacted in those situations and applied it to the current case to determine where wave B could end and what wave C could do.

******2023******

This first event began February 24, 2023. I will use 6 minute bars for comparisons. This is an inversion to today's scenario as the B wave moved down instead of up. Waves A and B looked like this:



Wave A moved 74.97 points over 58 trading bars
Wave B moved 89.89 points over 193 trading bars
Wave C moved 150.33 points over 149 trading bars
Wave A was 30.05% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 119.90% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 38.93% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 200.52% of wave A's movement

The full inverted movement picture was this:



If we apply the data explicitly to the data from our 2022 wave A, wave B could last 647 trading days gaining 1,591.14 points placing the market top at 5,082.72. Wave C could then lose 2,660.98 points in 501 trading days.

******2018******

This next event began January 26, 2023. I have returned to daily bars for this scenario. Waves A and B looked like this:



Wave A moved 319.07 points over 44 trading days
Wave B moved 387.11 points over 121 trading days
Wave C moved 594.33 points over 65 trading days
Wave A was 36.36% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 121.32% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 67.69% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 186.27% of wave A's movement

The full movement was this:



Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 536 trading days gaining 1,609.96 points placing the market top at 5,101.54. Wave C could then lose 2,471.88 points in 288 trading days.

******2014******

This next event began July 24, 2014. I will use hourly trading bars for this example. Waves A and B looked like this:



Wave A moved 82.38 points over 73 trading hours
Wave B moved 110.25 points over 205 trading hours
Wave C moved 198.6 points over 129 trading hours
Wave A was 35.61% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 133.83% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 56.59% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 241.08% of wave A's movement

The full movement was this:



Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 548 trading days gaining 1,775.98 points placing the market top at 5,267.56. Wave C could then lose 3,199.23 points in 344 trading days.

******2011******

This next event began January 19, 2011. I will use hourly trading bars for this example. Waves A and B looked like this:



Wave A moved 23.34 points over 6 trading hours
Wave B moved 31.41 points over 22 trading hours
Wave C moved 26.17 points over 4 trading hours
Wave A was 27.27% % the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 134.58% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 150% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 112.13% of wave A's movement

The full movement was this:



Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 715 trading days gaining 1,785.93 points placing the market top at 5,277.51. Wave C could then lose 1,488.01 points in 130 trading days.

******2005******

This next event began March 7, 2005. I will return to daily trading bars for this example and the rest after this point. Waves A and B looked like this:



Wave A moved 89.47 points over 31 trading days
Wave B moved 109.64 points over 73 trading days
Wave C moved 77.44 points over 50 trading days
Wave A was 42.47% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 122.54% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 62.00% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 86.55% of wave A's movement

The full movement was this:



Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 459 trading days gaining 1,626.15 points placing the market top at 5,117.73. Wave C could then lose 1,148.55 points in 314 trading days.

******2000******

This next event began March 24, 2000. Waves A and B looked like this:



Wave A moved 784.24 points over 639 trading days
Wave B moved 807.46 points over 1259 trading days
Wave C moved 909.3 points over 352 trading days
Wave A was 50.75% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 102.96% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 181.53% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 115.95% of wave A's movement

The full movement was this:



Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 384 trading days gaining 1,366.32 points placing the market top at 4,857.90. Wave C could then lose 1,538.70 points in 107 trading days.

******1990******

This next event began January 3, 1990. Waves A and B looked like this:



Wave A moved 40.76 points over 19 trading days
Wave B moved 49.95 points over 115 trading days
Wave C moved 75.27 points over 62 trading days
Wave A was 16.52% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 122.55% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 30.65% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 184.67% of wave A's movement

The full movement was this:



Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 1,180 trading days gaining 1,626.29 points placing the market top at 5,117.87. Wave C could then lose 2,450.64 points in 636 trading days.

******1979******

This next event began October 5, 1979. Waves A and B looked like this:



Wave A moved 13.1 points over 11 trading days
Wave B moved 21.16 points over 79 trading days
Wave C moved 25.99 points over 30 trading days
Wave A was 13.92% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 161.53% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 36.67% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 198.40% of wave A's movement

The full movement was this:



Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 1,401 trading days gaining 2,143.57 points placing the market top at 5,635.15. Wave C could then lose 2,632.85 points in 532 trading days.

******1968******

This next event began December 2, 1968. Waves A and B looked like this:



Wave A moved 40.76 points over 368 trading days
Wave B moved 53.13 points over 665 trading days
Wave C moved 60.78 points over 437 trading days
Wave A was 55.34% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 130.35% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 84.21% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 149.12% of wave A's movement

The full movement was this:



Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 352 trading days gaining 1,729.80 points placing the market top at 5,221.38. Wave C could then lose 1,978.88 points in 231 trading days.

******1965******

This next event began May 13, 1965. Waves A and B looked like this:



Wave A moved 9.95 points over 32 trading days
Wave B moved 13.99 points over 156 trading days
Wave C moved 22.44 points over 168 trading days
Wave A was 20.51% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 140.60% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 19.05% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 225.53% of wave A's movement

The full movement was this:



Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 950 trading days gaining 1,865.82 points placing the market top at 5,357.40. Wave C could then lose 2,992.87 points in 1,024 trading days.

Based on all of these instances, some are too far off to rhyme to our current situation when it comes to likely duration of wave B or top while others have options in play in the very near-term. With our current high 347 days into wave B, the next likely duration candidates are: 352, 384, 459, 536, 548, 647, 715, and 950. With only one top more than 300 points ago, nearby tops for wave B are at: 5,102, 5,118 (twice), 5,221, 5,267, 5,277, 5,357, and 5,635.

One of the historically similar instances possible in the near-term for both the duration and top are from 1968. A replication or near similar movement could place the top on next Monday at 5,221. This happens to be the day prior to the next CPI reading. A CPI increase could further delay or altogether push rate cuts off the table this year. If this is the exact top, the bottom could occur 231 trading days later near 3,242.50. This level aligns very near my original forecasted low below 3,300 (granted I figured the top would have been in well before now). The bottom could be around February 10, 2025 which is also in my semi-wide ballpark of the original market bottom forecasted on July 4, 2022.

The highest retracement for wave B's movement in relation to wave C is 161% from 1979, while most reside in the 119%-135% range. We have currently retraced (over extended) around 125% of wave A's movement.

We shall see what occurs as time moves on. If a drastic falls is still set to occur, it will take cascading events likely to the finance and technology sectors to make it so.

4月13日

註釋

The top is likely in now. Looks like wave B lasted 365 trading days which sat between two of the models. The top was quite close to the 2014 model which placed the top at 5,267. The top at 5,264 will now allow me to plot out an initial timeline for the bottom. At or below 3,300 still remains viable. The 2014 model estimated a bottom around 2,000 which is likely too low.