I noticed similarities between S&P500 Chart during 2003-2009 and current chart of ETH. This doesn’t necessarily mean they are identical or that ETH will definitely follow SPX footsteps, but it might be worthwhile to keep an eye on it.
1. 2003-04 Price accelerates
2. 2004-2007 Price climbs in defined channel. During this time FED raised rates multiple times, which led to start of mortgage defaults as borrowers with variable rates could not afford ever increasing mortgage pmts.
3. 2007 1H price breaks out from channel to the upside. Hing sight 20/20, mortgage problem was fully baked at this point. Notice PPO never reached 2004 levels.
4. 2007 2H Price prints double top. PPO lower on the second leg of the double top.
5. 2008 Q1. First drop to 200 MA with a dead cat bounce back to 50 MA.
6. Second drop broke 200 MA and had even weaker bounce back to 200 MA
7. Price went down as a falling knife. Leverage, that once used to multiple returns, started to multiply losses.
General public was still taking out loans at the top of the market believing this frenzy would keep going.
ETH analysis to follow in the separate post.
1. 2003-04 Price accelerates
2. 2004-2007 Price climbs in defined channel. During this time FED raised rates multiple times, which led to start of mortgage defaults as borrowers with variable rates could not afford ever increasing mortgage pmts.
3. 2007 1H price breaks out from channel to the upside. Hing sight 20/20, mortgage problem was fully baked at this point. Notice PPO never reached 2004 levels.
4. 2007 2H Price prints double top. PPO lower on the second leg of the double top.
5. 2008 Q1. First drop to 200 MA with a dead cat bounce back to 50 MA.
6. Second drop broke 200 MA and had even weaker bounce back to 200 MA
7. Price went down as a falling knife. Leverage, that once used to multiple returns, started to multiply losses.
General public was still taking out loans at the top of the market believing this frenzy would keep going.
ETH analysis to follow in the separate post.
