S&P 500指數已更新 S&P 500 waves - Here comes 3184?
Coronavirus has nothing on the Fed, for now. Economy reopening is what the market wants and that is what it got. Will the new cases slow the market down? Short of another full blown lock down, does not look like it. Will be interesting to see how earning factor in.
I am still bearish enough to wait it out for a few more days. It is not a slam dunk yet. IMO, I don't want to be holding anything over the holiday weekend just in case. There is still a chance this is a 3 corrective wave rally that makes a big drop when earnings come out. I am up from 60% to now at 80% convinced this is a new motive wave cycle. Will it gap up this morning and drop, possible. IMO, I expect it will push to 3184.
I am still bearish enough to wait it out for a few more days. It is not a slam dunk yet. IMO, I don't want to be holding anything over the holiday weekend just in case. There is still a chance this is a 3 corrective wave rally that makes a big drop when earnings come out. I am up from 60% to now at 80% convinced this is a new motive wave cycle. Will it gap up this morning and drop, possible. IMO, I expect it will push to 3184.
註釋
Turns out, it was gap up and then a small drop. Looks like my Fib level marking this as the end of wave 3 at 2.0 (3146) was actually the right answer. It surged above that level right before the opening and then retreated and stayed around that level all day. So, now the questions is this corrective or motive? Well, corrective come in 3 waves and not 5. We will know Monday or Tuesday which it is. If it falls and dramatically breaks the up channel, then it is corrective. If it only fall to around the channel and then makes a move well above today's high, then it is motive. That does not mean we will will not get a good sized drop later in the month. It could be a short lived motive wave taking us up around the high of early June, then a big drop based on earning or covid.
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