$SPY – Bearish Momentum Meets Spiral Timing

🌀 SPY – Spiral Timing, Macro Tension, and Bearish Momentum Brewing
Not financial advice. Short-term sentiment shifted bearish.

I’ve been tracking SPY using both Fibonacci retracements and Fib spirals across the daily and weekly timeframes, and we’re now at a critical inflection zone. My sentiment has shifted more cautiously bearish in the short term, while acknowledging upside remains intact on the longer timeframes.

🔍 Macro Backdrop: Pressure Building
CPI Data (May) came in at 2.4%, slightly higher than April’s 2.3%, but still below forecast — showing inflation is sticky but not accelerating.

Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran flared again over the weekend, adding risk-off pressure to already fragile sentiment.

Market volatility remains high, with trillions of dollars swinging across a narrow window — validating shorter Fib cycles and accelerated price exhaustion.

🧭 Daily Chart Analysis: December 2024 High → April 2025 Low
I used a bearish Fib retracement from the December 2024 highs to the April 2025 lows.

SPY has now retraced nearly 100% of that drop, currently hovering between the 0.786 and 0.886 retracement levels — which often act as exhaustion zones in corrective rallies.

The Fib spiral from the April low shows we’ve lost the initial vertical trendline that marked the recovery leg — a shift in momentum tone.

MACD has remained flat for 16 sessions, with a bearish divergence confirmed on Friday (6/13/25).

Momentum, which briefly turned positive on Thursday, flipped sharply back negative by week’s end.

📆 Weekly Chart Structure: March 2020 → Feb 2025
The weekly spiral, drawn from the March 2020 low to the February 2025 high, reflects a similar pattern:
→ Price is moving beyond the arc and approaching the vertical time marker, a zone where reversals or expansions often occur.

Long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term action suggests compression ahead of a possible pullback.

🔥 Spiral Interpretation Reminder:
The Fib spiral doesn’t predict direction — it identifies time-based pressure points.
When price crosses the arc or vertical band, volatility often follows.

🎯 Key Trade Levels:
Breakdown Watch:
→ Close below $595, then $587 could trigger downside toward $560 (0.618) and $545 (0.5) levels from the retracement

Breakout Watch:
→ A confirmed breakout above $609 (full retrace from the Fib) would invalidate the short-term bear thesis and resume bullish continuation

🤔 Positioning Outlook:
I’m tactically bearish here. The technicals show:

Momentum divergence

Fib exhaustion

Spiral confluence

Macro pressure mounting

I don’t think the long-term trend is broken — but we’re entering a time window for volatility, and that often brings opportunity on both sides. Short setups may offer better risk/reward right now if we see confirmation.

Would love to hear your bias here — bear trap brewing or topping process?