$SPY - My count and how I will trade it
Hey Guys. Hope everyone had a killer week. Market continues to just rip face on the daily, but how much longer can it last, is top in?
What I am seeing is two different possibilities, and neither one of them include some crazy further extension because I just don't see that happening. Obviously the market doesn't care what I think or what I want, but this is what I see and how I am going to trade it.
My bull count (obviously not super bull as not much more upside, but still upside nonetheless). My bull count has another rally early next week taking us to ~473 area for our wave 5 top (higher degree 1) from there we will flush ~61.8% retracement of last rally. For this count the "top" I am seeing being put in likely by Tuesday. Positive signs is no RSI divergence yet (which is common at tops), so that does agree with this count. If we somehow melt higher then that the apex of this rising wedge is @480 on 11/15... BE AWARE OF THAT
Bear count is the purple path, and on this one we already topped last week and the flush already started. We are heading to the PIVOT AVWAP confluence w/ retracement zone now. MACD looks like it could be pointing in this direction.
Either of these could happen, so be nimble. Other possibility is that the market just keeps getting gamma squeezed and these are completely wrong, but I am not favoring that.
How to trade this right now: Still Long w/ time while hedging large positions is smart. Take profits religiously on the rips to make sure you don't lose when the top does rear its ugly face. Draw this wedge on your chart.... GO SHORT ON THE LOWER TL BREAK. RISING WEDGE BREAKDOWN CAN LEAD TO A MAJOR DROP.
I will put out an in depth QQQ and IWM count later today or tomorrow if anyone wants it please message me on the app that I am not allowed to discuss. Hard to find time now adays to get all my charts up for everyone, but I will try my best to get that out there and explain how I will trade it.
NOTE : QQQ is likely very similar (don't have it complete yet for my notes) but we can expect more volatility when it tops (i.e. larger drop, also expect rotation)
Infrastructure bill passed last night, so expect Monday to be green (take profits on your swings, could even green to red fade). If Monday is red I would short it immediately because if we dont pump off good news then that is a BAD sign
What I am seeing is two different possibilities, and neither one of them include some crazy further extension because I just don't see that happening. Obviously the market doesn't care what I think or what I want, but this is what I see and how I am going to trade it.
My bull count (obviously not super bull as not much more upside, but still upside nonetheless). My bull count has another rally early next week taking us to ~473 area for our wave 5 top (higher degree 1) from there we will flush ~61.8% retracement of last rally. For this count the "top" I am seeing being put in likely by Tuesday. Positive signs is no RSI divergence yet (which is common at tops), so that does agree with this count. If we somehow melt higher then that the apex of this rising wedge is @480 on 11/15... BE AWARE OF THAT
Bear count is the purple path, and on this one we already topped last week and the flush already started. We are heading to the PIVOT AVWAP confluence w/ retracement zone now. MACD looks like it could be pointing in this direction.
Either of these could happen, so be nimble. Other possibility is that the market just keeps getting gamma squeezed and these are completely wrong, but I am not favoring that.
How to trade this right now: Still Long w/ time while hedging large positions is smart. Take profits religiously on the rips to make sure you don't lose when the top does rear its ugly face. Draw this wedge on your chart.... GO SHORT ON THE LOWER TL BREAK. RISING WEDGE BREAKDOWN CAN LEAD TO A MAJOR DROP.
I will put out an in depth QQQ and IWM count later today or tomorrow if anyone wants it please message me on the app that I am not allowed to discuss. Hard to find time now adays to get all my charts up for everyone, but I will try my best to get that out there and explain how I will trade it.
NOTE : QQQ is likely very similar (don't have it complete yet for my notes) but we can expect more volatility when it tops (i.e. larger drop, also expect rotation)
Infrastructure bill passed last night, so expect Monday to be green (take profits on your swings, could even green to red fade). If Monday is red I would short it immediately because if we dont pump off good news then that is a BAD sign
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