$SPY is presently testing long term support. So far intra-day it has undercut the August low of 182.40 but as of this writing has rebounded back above that level. Additionally, it is also flirting with the October 2014 lows of 181.92.
The more a support level is tested, the more likely it is to break. Think of it like taking a sledge hammer to a floor. You may do some damage to the floor on the first try but its unlikely you’ll break through. As you continuously hit the floor the hammer, it weakens and finally breaks. If we don’t break here, I suspect we likely will soon.
What helps support the market and keep the floor from breaking is ultimately demand for stocks (i.e. the performance leading stocks, stocks making higher highs, stocks in well formed bases setting up and/or breaking out). We do not see any of that here and in fact, most stocks have been leading the charge downward for quite a while.
The more a support level is tested, the more likely it is to break. Think of it like taking a sledge hammer to a floor. You may do some damage to the floor on the first try but its unlikely you’ll break through. As you continuously hit the floor the hammer, it weakens and finally breaks. If we don’t break here, I suspect we likely will soon.
What helps support the market and keep the floor from breaking is ultimately demand for stocks (i.e. the performance leading stocks, stocks making higher highs, stocks in well formed bases setting up and/or breaking out). We do not see any of that here and in fact, most stocks have been leading the charge downward for quite a while.