TRADE IDEA: SPY JULY 15TH 188/191/217/220 IRON CONDOR
Going a bit bonkers here with the lack of <45 DTE premium selling setups in the index ETF's, but doing my best to stay mechanical here.
My general cycle is that when VIX drops below 15, I look for (a) setups in index ETF's >90 DTE, as that is when implied volatility begins to return to regularize or return to a general background value; (b) look for long setups in VIX or VIX derivatives; and (c) do earnings plays. When VIX rises meaningfully above 15, I cycle back into <45 DTE index ETF setups.
Sticking to the "script," I'm looking for a fill of this setup at NY open, trading off a bit of profitability of profit percentage for credit nearly equal to one-third the width of the wings. Naturally, going out this far in time isn't that much fun, because it seems like you're waiting an awfully long time before these come to fruition. Nevertheless, it beats leaving your buying power out there unengaged waiting for a volatility pop that may occur tomorrow or three months from now ... .
I'll look to take this off at 50% max profit.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 53%
Max Profit: $93/contract
Buying Power Effect/Max Loss: $207/contract
My general cycle is that when VIX drops below 15, I look for (a) setups in index ETF's >90 DTE, as that is when implied volatility begins to return to regularize or return to a general background value; (b) look for long setups in VIX or VIX derivatives; and (c) do earnings plays. When VIX rises meaningfully above 15, I cycle back into <45 DTE index ETF setups.
Sticking to the "script," I'm looking for a fill of this setup at NY open, trading off a bit of profitability of profit percentage for credit nearly equal to one-third the width of the wings. Naturally, going out this far in time isn't that much fun, because it seems like you're waiting an awfully long time before these come to fruition. Nevertheless, it beats leaving your buying power out there unengaged waiting for a volatility pop that may occur tomorrow or three months from now ... .
I'll look to take this off at 50% max profit.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 53%
Max Profit: $93/contract
Buying Power Effect/Max Loss: $207/contract
評論:
Cancelled. I can get into a SPY setup any given day, but not into a VXX setup at sub-17.50, so opting to make a VXX short call diagonal my "trade of the day ... ."
