看空

Stocks Mixed After Worse Pummel Since June

已更新

US Futures drifted higher overnight, but are losing steam as we approach the cash open. Jobless claims came in better than expected at 751K, vs expectations of 763K, giving stocks a brief bounce. While this might be a beat, and marginally better than last week's print, this is 4 times what we saw pre-lockdown. Continuing claims came in at 7.75MM, which was notably lower than last week's print of 8.5M. US GDP soared by over 33% in Q3 (a record), beating expectations of a 30% rebound. Vix is sitting at a 40 handle as we approach the open, but markets are off their lows, which could put some downward pressure on vol (for now). Super Pelosi sent Bat Mnuchin a nice letter, and asked that the Trump Administration return to the negotiating table as soon as possible. Let's see if all of this 'awesome' data and news this morning is enough to reverse the negative sentiment, and global cross-asset fire sale we witnessed yesterday.

SPY is sitting a few points below it's 100 day MA (330), and I think the bulls may try to make a run for this level on the open. I suspect if they do, they'll succeed, but they'll be met with a rejection, followed by another leg lower to 320. As always, stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and best of luck out there!

If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.

註釋

Markets showing some weakness at the open. All the majors are now in the red. SPY continuing it's journey down to 320 as we break below yesterday's low, with the new low now at 325.09. Vix back up to it's HOD around 41. Are we seeing a repeat of yesterday?

註釋

Crude down 6% and sitting at a 35 handle. Ouch!

註釋

Testing the 50 period MA on the 5 minute at 328.12. 328 held up well for most of yesterday, until we broke below around 3:45PM. Let's see if 328 will act as resistance, or if the bulls can break through, and get us back up to the 330 level...

註釋

Vix got hammered back to a 37 handle, and is now below it's 21 period EMA on the hourly...

註釋

We're just shy of the 100 day MA now, and it looks like the bulls are going to get us there. As I mentioned earlier, I expect a rejection at this level, before another leg lower. Let's see what happens next...

註釋

Bulls are relentlessly fighting to break us above the 330 level. But, so far the bears have been able to defend this emerging "line in the sand."

註釋

Bulls taking in the view from above 330 right now - we're sitting at 330.32. Bears have until the close to take us back below. The 100 day MA is the nearest daily resistance.

註釋

330.84 is the new HOD. Vix getting hammered back to a 36 handle, and now down 10% on the day. If this is a legitimate shift in sentiment, or even just hype over Mega-Tech earnings, for example, then we may have more fuel in this bounce. But, if this is a technical bounce back to the 100 day as resistance, which I believe it is, I expect a massive swing to the downside heading into the close. It looks like a bull trap...

註釋

New HOD 331.54. The 21 period EMA on the hourly (332.74) is now in sight. Let's see if the bulls can get us there...

註釋

Looks like an overbought technical bounce. This is getting interesting, stay tuned...

註釋

Losing steam here in the final minutes of trade. Bulls showed up and took us on a trip all the way up to 333.39. Sitting at 331.19 at the moment with 3 minutes to the close, and the bulls need to hold on to 330...

註釋

Wow... Just wow. In the final minute of trade, the bulls lost the 330 level with a massive sell order on the bell to move us over a full point. I'll leave you guys with this:

註釋

Mnuchin this morning: New Phone, Who dis? (Joke)

註釋

We saw increased weakness overnight with S&P Futures falling as low as 3226.12 around 1AM, just above the Sep 24th lows. Then, around 2AM, markets caught a powerful bid, and rallied over 60 points back to 3290.88. We're now off the overnight highs and sitting around 3265 as we approach this mornings slew of economic data.

Mega-Tech earnings were relatively predictable (with the exception of Twitter, which got hammered in after-market trading, and was down as much as 15% off the back of weak user growth), but price action came as a surprise to most investors, who didn't expect their favorite stock to sell-off after posting stellar earnings growth. Lack of forward guidance, and increasing uncertainty were major issues heading into year end/2021.

Vix is back at a 38 handle after crashing over 10% yesterday, and looking strong as we approach the open. The majors are all down around 1%, and I expect it will be a risk-off Friday, as we end this historically worse performing month for stocks.

Stay tuned...

註釋

We're now up over 2% from the overnight lows, and we've erased most of the losses. Bulls making another attempt at the 100 Day MA here. Let's see what happens next...

註釋

Clear rejection at the 100 day MA, and losses now accelerating. We're sitting around 326.68.

註釋

New LOD (325.41), sitting just above yesterday's low of 325.09. 320 is back in play today...

註釋

Vix back at a 39 handle, and gaining momentum. Tech is getting hammered, Nasdaq is down 2.5%...

註釋

New weekly low at 323.76, and we're inching our way toward 320. Time is ticking to sell/hedge and I don't think anyone is going to sell Vol at this point. Low supply means vol could spike heavily into the close.

註釋

This looks like another cross-asset liquidation today. Stocks, bonds, gold, crypto, oil, all being liquidated. Yields spiking...

註釋

Today's sell-off looks incredibly orderly (for now).

註釋

Small bounce here on headlines that the FED will be easing terms on it's main street lending program. Just as we're about to revisit the overnight lows, we see the largest buy program of the day, single handedly reversing the day's downtrend. The FED's solution to everything is more debt. What a farce. Let's see what next happens as the market finds more bidders...

註釋

Bounce is losing steam fast, back to a 323 handle...

註釋

June 9th high (323.28), is holding up as interim support at the moment. We're now back to a 325 handle at lunch...

註釋

Another day another short squeeze at the onset of the afternoon session. On two other occasions this week we saw a similar move, before further downside. Let's see if today will be any different...

註釋

Revisiting the lows of the day again here. Vix catching a bid, and now back to mid 39s. This will get very ugly if we lose the 320 level. It's a straight shot to the 200 day MA at 312.38...

註釋

New LOD is 322.91 as we approach power hour in bearish fashion. Things are about to get interesting...

註釋

Massive buy program here around 3:37PM which took us from 322.96 to 324.30 in less than 5 minutes. Someone wants this market to close higher...

註釋

Maybe Mnuchin answered his phone after all. Let's find out, 10 minutes to the close...

註釋

That's all folks! More than half the day's losses were erased in the final minutes of trade. But, it was a bearish day, a bearish week, and a bearish month for risk assets. We saw cross-asset liquidation globally like I haven't seen in a while. Considering the numerous negative catalysts surrounding the market at the moment, and with the election days away, I'm actually surprised the bulls were able to keep us above 320. Bulls lost the 100 day MA yesterday (330), and after several adamant attempts to break back above, the bears were successfully able to defend this important line in the sand. It's been a volatile week, and now it's time to switch off. I hope you guys enjoyed the week. Have a great weekend, and I look forward to seeing you all next week. It's election week! Cheers, Michael.