S&P 500 Week ahead - Here Comes the Corrective Wave???

IMO, it is corrective wave time after a full 5 stage motive Elliot wave. There is a slim chance of a touch more upside, but it should not last long. S&P should have peaked on Thursday based on the Elliott wave analysis, but the jobs report boosted way above. If I have my analysis correct and we are about to see a corrective wave, then I have 2 theories on what the correction will look like: 1) minimal and 2) medium. I don't think there will be a major correction. I just saw some news about the employment numbers are actually 3% worse than reported due to a "misclassification error". Does that throw into question that Friday's was also bogus? SPX futures were up as of writing this Sunday night, so not sure what the morning will bring. I would like to think the medium correction will be the correct one based on bleeding off the extra Friday surge. I generally expect a quick correction, a short rally, then then a solid drop down. After that final correction, the market should shift back to the final 3rd motive wave, which will likely takes the S&P up to 3400, maybe even 3500.

My inner bear is still trying to shake off that Friday rally. However, I expect a bullish run after this corrective wave, but I am still bearish enough that a corrective wave is coming and it will be more than the bulls would like. Lets see what happens. I have set my limit orders according to the medium correction case, and will have to watch the week to see if they need adjusted.

Hope this helps and happy trading.

評論:

Looking at the data this morning, there is the possibility that wave 5 could surge to a max of 3300 to match the height of wave 1. However, it seems more natural that it stopped at the 3140 fib ret line like it did on June 4th. With futures up this morning, I am kind of confused as to what is going on.