Post fed sell off?

Shortly before a significant drop in SPY, and after a period of high correlation, the correlation between SPY and MTUM (Momentum stock index) seems to drop below .50. 4/5 cases there is a small to medium drop. The green arrow indicates a case where this pattern predicts a move down, but instead there is a move up. Based on this data I have concluded that it is likely that we will see a drop tomorrow after the fed meeting, this will restore the correlation between SPY and MTUM stocks. After this drop I predict we will make a strong move upwards and breach new all time highs. This is all very speculative, sample size is small, etc. so take this with a grain of salt.